Position assessment paper: Prospects for geopolitical stability and the international justice system(The repercussions of major regional transformations on the Syrian state and the Middle East region)

Position assessment paper: Prospects for geopolitical stability and the international justice system
(The repercussions of major regional transformations on the Syrian state and the Middle East region)
Issued by: The National Council for Human Rights (The third stream)
Introduction: National responsibility in the face of historical slide
Syria and the region are going through a historical turning point that requires an immediate shift in policies “Crisis management” Fragile to “Sustainable sovereign solutions”. Today, Syria is facing existential choices. Either continue with the approach “Proxy wars” and confirmation “De facto authorities” Which inevitably leads us towards comprehensive fragmentation, or historical bias towards a choice “Legal sovereignty” Which guarantees the unity of the Earth, preserves human dignity, and protects regional national security from the dangers of geopolitical explosion.
Firstly: Regional balance and dilemma “Ideology” (The last Iranian option)

1. Between the natural state and the ideology of revolution: The Iranian regime is at a historical crossroads; Either return to the model “Natural state” By dismantling the militia arms, refraining from interfering in the sovereign affairs of Syria, the Arab countries and the region in the Middle East and North Africa, and paying attention to the needs of its people, or an inevitable confrontation. “Internal disintegration scenario”.
2. Warning of a massive disintegration earthquake: The continuation of the approach “Exporting the revolution” It will necessarily explode nationalisms and geographical loyalties within the Iranian body (Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Ahvaz)It is an earthquake whose impact will spread to fragment the Syrian and Turkish geography, threatening the security of the alliance “NATO” And the entire Arab system, and opens the door to projects “Greater Kurdistan” Which ends the historical stability of the region and brings it into conflict “dominoes” No one will be spared from him.
   secondly: dilemma “De facto authority” (Al-Julani/Al-Sharaa system)
3. Strategic characterization: We assure survival “Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham” Its extremist behavior is the primary driver and major pretext for dividing Syria. This is a model that does not represent the aspirations of the people, but it is “time bomb” It prevents any international recognition of a Syrian national project and reinforces the international community’s fears of civilian alternatives.
4. Trafficking in morals and systematic corruption: Al-Julani/Al-Sharaa practices cheap trade between religion and secularism to mobilize extremists, while managing “Economic mafia” Based on monopoly, drying up resources, and militarizing children to finance survival “Extremist organization” At the expense of the citizen’s livelihood, with a complete absence of legal security for investment.
   Third: Geopolitical trade-off (A message to regional and international powers)
5. Lift the cover off “The impenetrable dam” Fake: We are heading to Turkey (As a NATO ally) The Gulf states need to lift the lid on extremist projects. Supporting extremism as “An impenetrable dam” To weaken the Iranian role is a strategic illusion; Shiite extremism is not treated by Sunni extremism, but rather it moves the region from one conflict to another. The national project based on the rule of law and leaders accepted by the people and internationally is the true basis for stability.
6. Embarrassing financiers “Under the table”: We warn that some associations and non-governmental figures in some Gulf countries continue to support projects that cultivate a culture of extremism, in sharp contradiction with the modernizing tendencies of the region’s leaders.. Al-Julani is not “Protector” Rather, it is “Hired broker” He sells the blood of Syrians for narrow interests.
7. Zero equation: إما استقرار شامل برفع اليد عن منظومات التطرف مقابل إنهاء التمدد الإيراني بمشروع وطني حقيقي يتقاطع بين مصالح الشعب السوري ومصالح دول المنطقة وإقرار السلام.. أو الفوضى التي ستطال الجميع نتيجة استمرار نزيف الدم، والانتقال من الديكتاتورية والقمع إلى التطرف والجهل، مما سيرتد كارثياً على اقتصاد المنطقة ويسمح بهيمنة خارجية مطلقة.
   Fourth: الرؤية السيادية للبديل الوطني ومنظومة العدالة الشاملة
8. العدالة الناجزة كقاعدة للاستقرار: لا استقرار سياسي أو اقتصادي دون تفعيل أدوات العدالة الدولية (The Rome Statute, the US Gisca Law, and transitional justice). إن تحقيق العدالة الناجزة يبدأ بمحاسبة كافة المتورطين في جرائم الحرب والانتهاكات الجسيمة ضد الشعب السوري، وعلى رأسها جرائم الاستبداد الممنهج ومنظومات القمع والتهجير للنظام البائد، جنباً إلى جنب مع جرائم التنظيمات الراديكالية؛ فلا سلام مستدام دون إنصاف ذوي الضحايا وكشف مصير المغيبين قسرياً، وضمان عدم إفلات أي مجرم من العقاب مهما كانت خلفيته السياسية أو الأيديولوجية.
9. اللامركزية كحل للوحدة لا للانفصال: نطرح نظاماً لامركزياً إدارياً وقانونياً واقتصادياً يمنح المناطق استقلالية في إدارة شؤونها، مما يقطع الطريق على “تغول المركز المتطرف” ويضمن “الأمان للأقليات”، وهو مرهون برفع الغطاء الإقليمي عن منظومة الجولاني وتحقيق العدالة الشاملة.
10. السلام الإقليمي الشامل: إن مشروعنا يطرح “السلام القائم على سيادة القانون” كبديل للحروب العبثية؛ حيث تلتزم سورية المستقبلية بكونها عامل أمن لجيرانها وللمنطقة. إن تحقيق الازدهار للأجيال القادمة مرهون بإنهاء العنف الراديكالي بكافة أنواعه، وبناء جسور التعاون المبنية على المصالح المشتركة والاعتراف المتبادل بالحقوق السيادية.
    conclusion: نداء لأصحاب الحق والدم
    إن سورية والمنطقة تمران بمنعطف لا يقبل أنصاف الحلول. that “The third stream” هو الضمانة لحوار وطني عقلاني يبدأ بمجرد رفع اليد الإقليمية عن قوى الإرهاب والارتهان. والمسؤولية الوطنية تقتضي الانحياز لخيار “Legal sovereignty” لضمان مستقبل الأجيال القادمة بعيداً عن أمراء الحرب وسماسرة الأيديولوجيا، وبناء عصر جديد من السلام والازدهار في الشرق الأوسط.
    Mr. Qutaiba Qasim Al-Arab
    President of the National Council for Human Rights (The third stream)
    صدرت في: 19 March 2026

Position Paper: Horizons of Geopolitical Stability and International Justice
(The Impact of Major Regional Shifts on the Syrian State and the Middle East)
Issued by: The National Council for Human Rights (The Third Track)
Preamble: National Responsibility in a Historic Turning Point
Syria and the region are at a historic crossroads that necessitates an immediate transition from fragile “crisis management” policies to “Sustainable Sovereign Solutions.” Today, Syria faces existential choices: either the continuation of “proxy wars” and the entrenchment of “de facto authorities” that inevitably lead to total fragmentation, or a historic alignment with the “Legal Sovereignty” option. This path ensures territorial unity, safeguards human dignity, and protects regional national security from the risks of a geopolitical explosion.
I. Regional Balance and the “Ideology” Dilemma (The Final Iranian Choice)

1. Between a Natural State and Revolutionary Ideology: The Iranian regime stands at a historic crossroads; it must either return to the model of a “Natural State” by dismantling its militia arms, ceasing interference in the sovereign affairs of Syria, Arab nations, and the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and attending to the needs of its own people, or face the inevitability of an “internal disintegration scenario.”
2. Warning of Total Fragmentation: The continuation of the “Exporting the Revolution” approach will inevitably trigger the explosion of ethnic and geographic loyalties within the Iranian body (Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Ahvaz). This earthquake will extend its impact to the fragmentation of Syrian and Turkish geography, threatening the security of NATO and the Arab system as a whole. It also opens the door for trans-border projects like “Greater Kurdistan,” ending historical stability and plunging the region into a “domino effect” from which no one will be safe.
   II. The “De Facto Authority” Dilemma (The Jolani/Al-Sharaa System)
3. Strategic Characterization: We emphasize that the survival of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” and its extremist conduct is the primary driver and major pretext for the partition of Syria. This model does not represent the aspirations of the Syrian people; rather, it is a “time bomb” that prevents any international recognition of a Syrian national project and reinforces global concerns regarding civil alternatives.
4. Manipulation of Morality and Systematic Corruption: The Jolani/Al-Sharaa system practices a cheap trade between religion and secularism to mobilize extremists, while managing an “economic mafia” based on monopoly, resource depletion, and the militarization of children. These activities fund the survival of an “extremist organization” at the expense of the citizens’ livelihood, amid a total absence of legal security for investment.
   III. Geopolitical Reciprocity (A Message to Regional and International Powers)
5. Lifting the Cover on the False “Fortress”: We address Turkey (as a NATO ally) and the Gulf states on the necessity of lifting the cover off extremist projects. Supporting extremism as a “fortress” to weaken the Iranian role is a strategic illusion; Shia extremism cannot be treated with Sunni extremism, as this only shifts the region from one conflict to another. A national project based on the Rule of Law and internationally and popularly accepted leadership is the true pillar of stability.
6. Exposing “Under-the-Table” Financiers: We warn against the continued support by certain non-governmental associations and figures in some Gulf states for projects that sow the culture of extremism, in sharp contradiction to the modernization trends of the region’s leaders. Jolani is not a “protector” but a “mercenary broker” selling Syrian blood for narrow interests.
7. The Zero-Sum Equation: The region faces two choices: either comprehensive stability by lifting support for extremist systems in exchange for ending Iranian expansion through a genuine national project that aligns the interests of the Syrian people with regional stability and peace—or chaos that will affect everyone. This chaos, resulting from continued bloodshed and the transition from dictatorship and repression to extremism and ignorance, will catastrophically impact the regional economy and allow for absolute foreign hegemony over fragmented statelets.
   IV. Sovereign Vision for the National Alternative and Comprehensive Justice
8. Effective Justice as a Pillar of Stability: There can be no political or economic stability without activating international justice tools (the Rome Statute, the U.S. Caesar Act, and Transitional Justice). The achievement of effective justice begins with holding accountable all those involved in war crimes and gross violations against the Syrian people—foremost among them the systematic tyranny, repression, and displacement apparatuses of the defunct regime, alongside the crimes of radical organizations. There can be no sustainable peace without justice for the victims’ families, revealing the fate of the forcibly disappeared, and ensuring that no criminal escapes punishment, regardless of their political or ideological background.
9. Decentralization as a Solution for Unity, Not Partition: We propose an advanced administrative, legal, and economic decentralized system that grants regions autonomy in managing their affairs. This cuts the path for “extremist central overreach” and ensures “security for minorities,” contingent upon the lifting of regional cover for the Jolani system and the realization of comprehensive justice.
10. Comprehensive Regional Peace: Our project proposes “Peace Based on the Sovereignty of Law” as an alternative to futile wars. A future Syria commits to being a pillar of security for its neighbors and the region. The achievement of prosperity for future generations is tied to ending radical violence of all kinds and building bridges of cooperation based on mutual interests and reciprocal recognition of sovereign rights.
    Conclusion: A Call to the People of Right and Blood
    Syria and the region are passing through a turning point that accepts no half-measures. “The Third Track” is the guarantee for a rational national dialogue that begins as soon as regional support for forces of terrorism and dependency is lifted. National responsibility demands an alignment with the “Legal Sovereignty” option to ensure the future of coming generations, away from warlords and ideological brokers, and to build a new era of peace and prosperity in the Middle East.
    Professor Kutaiba Qasim Al-Arab
    President of the National Council for Human Rights (The Third Track)
    Issued on: March 19, 2026

 التيار الثالث، المجلس الوطني لحقوق الإنسان، قتيبة قاسم العرب، استقرار سورية، العدالة الدولية، الجولاني، محاسبة النظام، اللامركزية الإدارية، الشرق الأوسط، شمال إفريقيا، مكافحة التطرف، السلام الإقليمي، قانون جيسكا، السيادة القانونية.

• The Third Track, National Council for Human Rights, Khuhaba Qisim Al-Arab, Syria Stability, International Justice, Jolani, Regime Accountability, Administrative Decentralization, Middle East, North Africa, Counter-Extremism, Regional Peace, Caesar Act, Legal Sovereignty.