A fact-finding report and analysis of the reality of policies and their human rights dimensions in Syria

A fact-finding report and analysis of the reality of policies and their human rights dimensions in Syria

 The issuing authority: National Council for Human Rights - Syria

 Version type: Documentary analytical report (Geopolitical with human rights dimensions) – Syrian (2025 – 2026)

(A strategic assessment of the political reality, national sovereignty, and human rights dimensions)

 In cooperation with: The National Movement of Syrian Civil Society, the Free Democratic Patriots Movement

The Syrian Strategic Studies and Research CommitteeOh

Executive summary

This analytical, documentary report monitors the interactions of the contemporary Syrian scene during the transitional phase (2025 – 2026). The publication aims to investigate facts and examine the emerging legislative, political and economic reality following the fall of the previous regime and the assumption of the transitional government of Ahmed Al-Sharaa. (Abu Muhammad Al-Julani formerly) Managing the country under a temporary constitutional declaration. The report deals with in-depth analysis of the dialectic of international exception to de facto authority, regional influence struggles, and revealing the methods of systematic depletion of the energy sector and its impact on the economic crisis, the suffering of the Syrian people, rising prices, and the internal security crisis represented by internal liquidations and bombings of military depots, arriving at an assessment of the human rights dimensions of violations of minority rights and abuses in the south and the Syrian coast. The report reveals a policy of systematic impoverishment and bulldozing of productive capacities and local self-sufficiency initiatives, where they are exploited. Hunger and the need for livelihood narrow the options for citizens and bargain between making a living or engaging in ideological mobilization, in preparation for building a non-national and ideological army, which puts the duration of the transitional period and the international bet on it at risk of adverse results that threaten regional stability.”

 Highlighting the inevitability of moving towards a model “Civil state” As the only sustainable way to establish civil peace and regional stability.

“A methodological note on geopolitical shifts and the scope of accountability”

“The focus of this report is on current de facto authority practices and their intertwining with ideological currents and emerging regional influence (Turkish)Documenting human rights violations, war crimes, and violations of economic rights is in no way separate from the historical accumulation of the crisis. The Council believes that the current state of institutional fragility and structural collapse is the direct result of long years of military influence and Iranian hegemony and the grave violations and crimes committed with the previous regime, which swept away the state’s national institutions and economy.. While this presence has receded in favor of new equations, the legal and legal duty imposes that accountability and analysis be directed towards “those who exercise effective control over Syrian land, resources, and decision-making in the 2025-2026 phase,” without any dependence on regional axes or tensions, in order to serve the goals of promoting and protecting human rights for all sects and components of the Syrian people.”

The first axis: The dialectic of double exception and the paradox of the counter-terrorism strategy for the year 2026

1. Political engineering and employing lobbies

Contemporary Western foreign policy is witnessing a qualitative pragmatic change imposed by the dynamics of field control. While the American and European state agencies maintain their legal classifications against political Islam and jihadist organizations and criminalize their regional branches, the Syrian case received a tangible exception.. This circumvention is attributed to the role of intense and systematic pressure exerted by Syrian-American and European blocs, supported by the cross-border networks of the Muslim Brotherhood, to market the de facto authority led by Ahmed al-Sharaa as “Functional partner” Wahid, and the reproduction of political Islam in Western-acceptable technocratic forms.

2. strategy “Cut the squares” And the interim hierarchy

 This acceptance goes beyond merely responding to interest groups and intersects with a higher regional strategy aimed at... “Cut the squares” In front of Iran's arms in the region, and containing the de facto authority as a barrier that isolates the Syrian interior from Iranian logistical expansion (Iraq-Lebanon). In this context, and in line with what was stated in the American strategy to combat terrorism (2026), which explicitly identified the Iranian regime as the “number one sponsor of terrorism in the world,” imposes a staging hierarchy in the ranking of international priorities. The focus is on neutralizing the Iranian threat as a pressing priority, in preparation for addressing the rest of the threatening axes with the same firmness. These ruling threats include ideological extremism represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, the violent far left, and transnational terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Khorasan..

3- Legislative scrambles and structural differences between the Brotherhood and Salafist jihadism

 The de facto authority exploits the absence of a permanent constitution to impose a legal reality through the mechanisms of legalized tyranny. The legislative analysis shows an organizational and ideological differentiation between the so-called wing “Jihadi Salafism” The ruler, led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Ben “The Muslim Brotherhood”; The alliance between them is a pragmatic alliance due to the intersection of interests and progress. The Brotherhood is making unremitting efforts within the legislative committees and the transitional parliament to pass party laws that allow ideological associations to infiltrate unions, municipalities, and state departments to control the ballot boxes and prepare for the overthrow of Ahmed Al-Sharaa immediately after the end of the transitional period. (The five years) Assumed, which perpetuates the state of silent internal competition for power.

4. The paradox of American counterterrorism doctrine 2026

 The height of the legal contradiction appears when these legislative moves are matched with the updated US counterterrorism strategy (2026); It clearly confirms the American strategy and holds it accountable “Muslim Brotherhood” The currents branching out from it have the greatest responsibility as they are the founding source and basic thought on which all contemporary jihadi and terrorist organizations are fed and reproduced.. At a time when the American counter-terrorism doctrine classifies these groups as a radical source of extremist thought, it is noticeable on the ground that the penetration of the same trends into the formulation of legislation, the appointed Syrian parliament, and the structure of the transitional authority is overlooked, which reflects a clear contradiction between the strategic perspective of combating terrorism and temporary geopolitical considerations..

secondly: model “Counter-terrorism laboratory ” And the dialectic of ideological penetration (The great strategic deception)

• Laboratory control and illusion submission “Scapegoats”: We see in the geopolitical analysis of the reality of policies that the Syrian exception represents a very complex experimental and intelligence model, based on the Western assumption that it is possible “Filtering extremism with extremism”. The current transitional authority exercises a dual functional role. It is asked to present its former radical elements and foreign fighters who reject discipline as “Scapegoats” Through systematic liquidation operations and warehouse bombings to prove its international worth before Washington, and hidden cooperation to contain the legacy of the organization “The rule”. Under this approach, the US State Department took the step of removing the name “Al-Nusra Front” From the terrorist lists as a mechanism of encouragement and direct political support for Ahmed Al-Sharaa, with the aim of facilitating the polarization and dismantling of these groups.
• The legacy of shared bonds and the impossibility of reliability: Field realities and the doctrine of human rights documentation reveal a structural gap in this model. The military and legal structures affiliated with Ahmed Al-Sharaa completely lack security reliability as a result of the organic interconnectedness, the common jihadi history, and the long ideological and logistical overlap of its elements with organizations such as “ISIS” and”The rule” and”Al-Nusra”. Current indications in Damascus indicate that there are deep doubts about Ahmed al-Sharaa’s management “A dual role by implicit and hidden agreement with those cells”; Instead of the artificial success achieved by the West in containing jihadism, this path functionally leads to strengthening these elements, protecting them, and giving them legal and financial cover under the umbrella of state institutions and its unified national army, which portends the emergence of “An institutionalized jihadist army ” in the near future.
• Historical hoaxes and fears of cross-border penetration: This reality is classified as the largest strategic and intelligence deception in modern history on behalf of Al-Qaeda and its offshoots, bringing to mind the same miscalculations that preceded the attacks. “11 September” And scenarios “7 October”. From here stems the deep Israeli concern. Whatever the Western decision-maker assumes “Good faith” Or the pragmatic shift in the person of Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Controlling thousands of ideological fighters is not guaranteed from a military perspective..
• Eliminating the Iranian axis and an alternative “Ottoman project”: These data gain a dangerous dimension when linked to the Turkish role. Ankara has long-standing historical relations with these organizations since the era of the previous regime and facilitated their crossing. Following the fall and disintegration of the Iranian axis in the region, the aspiration of radical movements to employ and direct Ottoman Islamic discourse to use Syrian geography as a starting point for an alternative cross-border project under the slogans of “Arrival to Jerusalem” And constructive “New Ottoman Crescent”. This alternative ideological expansion completely removes the rug from the premise of functional stability, and makes the current transitional system a hotbed of intellectual and military export that threatens the security and stability of the entire Middle East region..
• Fears “October 7th” New and Israeli pretexts: This functional role, based on security maneuvers and containing radical ideological groups, raises fundamental and deep concerns for Tel Aviv. Israeli security circles express great concern that this unstable model will lead to... “New 7th of October scenario” It comes as a sudden shock from the northern border. This apprehension withdraws any confidence in the possibility of formulating a regional peace through this authority, and gives Israel the immediate legal and security justification before the international community to impose “A military fait accompli” Through its incursion and occupation of the buffer zone in the Golan and areas of Quneitra and Mount Hermon as pre-emptive protective steps..

Third: Turkish-Israeli influence struggle and understandings “Before the fall” Collapsed

• Clearing pre-fall understandings: Political readings of the reality of policies indicate that non-public understandings took place before the fall of Damascus, led by international and regional parties to facilitate the collapse of the regime. They were based on promises to control the scene, prevent the expansion of extremist movements, and dismantle the military logistical structure to ensure the security of the Israeli and Turkish borders alike..
• The Turkish role as godfather of the job role: Ankara's desire to lead and govern the Syrian scene and prevent the establishment of independent Kurdish entities met with the American desire to find a central authority to control the land, which prompted Turkey to play the role of godfather to convince the White House of the feasibility of retaining Ahmed Al-Sharaa and supporting him.. However, the absolute rise of the transitional government and the penetration of Turkish influence into the joints of the Syrian state led to a direct collision with Israel. You see Tel Aviv in the new Syria “A geopolitical extension and proxy for Ankara” On its borders, which prompted Israeli aircraft to launch strategic strikes deep into Syria (Such as bombing the terraces of the Abu al-Duhur military base in Idlib to prevent the positioning of Turkish forces there).

Fourth: The dual Arab position and the conflict of secret and public balances

 The declared position and official speech: The official public discourse of some moderate Arab countries is based on the absolute rejection of reproducing extremist religious rule or empowering the Muslim Brotherhood movement in the spheres of legislation, the appointed parliament, and the constitutional committees in Syria. These countries consider the growing influence of Islamic blocs a cross-border threat that strategically affects Arab national security and undermines the stability of the region.

 Pragmatic covert coordination and financing: On the other hand, pragmatic readings reveal the flow of financial support and direct intelligence coordination from the same Arab capitals with Ahmed Al-Sharaa.. This contradiction stems from geopolitical calculations aimed at using the new centralization in Damascus as a buffer wall that prevents armed factions loyal to Turkey in the north from annexing more Syrian territory, and to build a security structure capable of controlling the common borders, and limiting the activities of terrorist and unruly groups that threaten the security of neighboring countries..

Fifth : The tragedy of the Syrian south and coast and the adaptation of violations of minority rights and freedom of belief

Suwayda Governorate and the Syrian coastal regions have become the real laboratory for the failure of the functional de facto authority model and its structural inability to transform into a comprehensive citizen state.:

• Legal adjustment of serious violations in As-Suwayda and the coast: In the contemporary era, As-Suwayda Governorate and the coastal areas have faced serious and bloody violations. It documented updated human rights reports, especially the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria (Including its dedicated reports for the Coast and the South)Bloody attacks, liquidations, systematic sieges, and targeting of civilians committed by extremist factions. These works are legally qualified as being “War crimes, crimes against humanity, and systematic ethnic and religious targeting of minorities” Under the provisions of the provisions of international humanitarian law and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
•  Promoting protectionist and separatist tendencies and alternative protection options:
• These transgressions established a deep-rooted conviction among minorities (Especially the Druze and the inhabitants of the Syrian coast )The current transitional authority in Damascus is structurally incapable of acting as a citizen state that cares for all its people, but rather seeks to exploit internal conflicts and security concerns to establish its absolute hegemony.. This crisis reality has prompted the spiritual, civil, and civil bodies in the south and the coast to seriously consider hybrid options starting from “Extended self-management” And the federal approach, and it amounts to presenting sharp options such as secession and the right to self-determination, or even searching for formulas for joining a fateful alliance with Israel for the South, as an inevitable and final protective mechanism to defend cultural, social and religious existence..
• This radical transformation comes in light of the complete absence of real Arab or international guarantees to protect them, and in exchange for Israel’s success in attracting these components and providing a security umbrella for them, relying on the principle “Common security”The extended family and demographic ties with the Druze of Israel, and the historical social bridges, in addition to mutual apprehension and fear of the expansion of trends of extremism and Islamic extremism..
• VI: The reality of the Kurdish street between leadership pressures and constitutional scrambles
• Leadership retreats and pressure from Washington and Ankara: Field readings in northern and eastern Syria reveal a pivotal shift in the Kurdish scene. The previous military leadership submitted to the Syrian Democratic Council and SDF (Led by Mazloum Abdi) Strict external and international pressures and dictates forced it to enter into formal understandings and mergers with the transitional authority in Damascus.. This path came after the reduction and dismantling of the structural influence of “Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)” Non-Syrian elements within the leadership structures, in order to avoid launching a comprehensive Turkish military attack and neutralize Ankara’s security pretexts..
•  The boiling of the Kurdish street and the popular rejection of formal understandings: On the other side, this meta-negotiating path faces popular unrest and a broad civil movement in the national Kurdish street with all its political and social forces.. The Kurdish street absolutely rejects this “Temporary understandings” He sees it as a sacrifice of historical political rights, stressing that the integration of military leaders under the umbrella of the de facto authority does not reflect their legitimate aspirations as an authentic component in the region.
•  Constitutional imperative and rehabilitating the original component: The Kurdish street and the national civil forces insist on not reducing the Kurdish issue to security arrangements or attached administrative features. Rather, they demand explicit and clear constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people “A key and authentic ingredient” In the new Syrian state, and ensuring their linguistic, cultural, and political rights within the structure of the permanent constitution, considering that continuing to ignore these rights or imposing legislative tyranny will keep the regions of northeastern Syria a hotbed of anxiety and permanent turmoil that threatens the cohesion of the entire transitional state..

Seventh: Compromising national sovereignty, providing pretexts for foreign interventions, and reproducing dependency

 Providing pretexts for regional interventions and sovereign encroachment:

Field and political data prove that the de facto authority is the direct culprit in violating Syrian sovereignty and providing pretexts for foreign interventions. As the systematic crimes and violations committed against the indigenous components of the South (Druze) And the coast (Alawites) And the northeast (Kurds) It provided the pretext and direct justification for Israel and the regional powers to intervene militarily to protect its borders or protect the components. In parallel, this authority allows the emergence and display of radical groups and factions that raise slogans across borders (like “Removal of Jews” and”Liberation of Jerusalem”) He pulls the rug out of the concept of a responsible state, and places Syria under international persecution and regional security necessities.

 Reproducing the external dependency model (“The false legitimacy of alliances”):

In an open political paradox, the current authority is reproducing the same practices of the previous Assad regime. While the previous regime legitimized the Iranian presence and militias under the name “Sovereign alliances and legitimate demand”The current authority exercises absolute subordination to Turkey under the pretext “Free Syria with its alliances”. The trade-off is the Syrian national decision and dependence on regional projects (Whether Turkish or other) It makes this authority and its factions directly responsible for perpetuating the direct occupations, fragmenting the Syrian geography, and turning the country into an arena for settling regional scores at the expense of the blood and dignity of the Syrians..

Eighth: Economic depletion and energy sector governance: Dismantling the system of disguised privatization and shadow networks (2026)

1. Digital map of production and the structural gap (The reality of large fields)

Shows field data and economic indicators for the year 2026 A severe structural deficit between the volume of domestic production and the volume of actual demand, a deficit that the authorities use as a cover to justify the ongoing crises, while in reality it is exploited to pass unannounced privatization of resources.:

• Digital disability equation: Syria needs daily 300,000 A barrel of oil to cover the local market's minimum need. In contrast, the actual GDP for the year 2026 about 115,000 Only barrels per day, which means there is a gap and a daily shortage exceeding 60%.
• Rumailan Fields Complex (Hasakah): It currently represents the largest basic and stable oil bloc with a production of approx 80,000 barrels per day. Despite signing initial memorandums of understanding with foreign companies (Like the American HKN)However, actual production is still managed locally and through parallel channels, and most of it is classified as heavy crude oil.
• Al Omar oil field (Deer Al Zour): It suffers from massive destruction to its pumping networks and vital facilities. Despite including more than 450 well, but its current production fluctuates between 5,000 to 20,000 A maximum of barrels per day, which is a very small percentage compared to its historical capacity.
• Tank field (Deer Al Zour): It was subjected to systematic destruction of its infrastructure at a rate ranging between 90% To 95%, production is currently limited to rudimentary rehabilitation attempts of some individual wells to produce between 3,000 to 5,000 Only barrels per day

First table: Digital map of major oil and gas fields and actual production (2026)

field / Oil complex	Geographical location	The reality of field control and management	Actual daily production (2026)	Production capacity / Technical status of the infrastructure
Rumailan Fields Complex	Al-Hasakah Governorate	Parallel security management / Front companies (Miral)	~ 80,000 barrels/day	Relatively stable production (Heavy crude)It represents the main export nerve.
Al Omar oil field	Deir ez-Zor countryside	Management of front companies (Valleys)	5,000 – 20,000 barrels/day	Massive destruction in pumping stations, operating at minimal capacity 450 A well.
Al-Tanak oil field	Deir ez-Zor countryside	Security supervision / Local front companies	3,000 – 5,000 barrels/day	Percentage destruction 90% – 95%It is limited to rudimentary rehabilitation of some wells.
Gross domestic production	All fields restored	Parallel channels and suspicious companies	~ 115,000 barrels/day	Daily deficit exceeds 60% compared to the actual need (300,000 barrels/day).

2. strategy “Front companies” And the shadow economy

Due to the lack of legal and security stability in the long term, major international companies have refrained from starting real and direct investments on the ground.. Instead of subjecting the recovered fields to the supervision of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, the management of the wealth of the East Euphrates was transferred to emerging private investment companies with a vague identity that were established locally to be technocratic civilian fronts directly affiliated with military leaders in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the influential elite.:

• Al Widyan Investment Group (Al-Widian Group): It emerged as a technocratic civilian front specialized in managing logistical contracts and rehabilitating damaged individual wells in the Deir ez-Zor countryside, and acts as a legal cover to hide the military identity of the real beneficiaries of production revenues..
• Miral Energy and Oil Services Company (Miral Energy): It was founded under the guise of providing “Technical and logistical services”It undertakes full supervision of fleets of tankers transporting oil from the Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor fields towards the Syrian coast, and controls the quantities of duty-free markets..
• Al-Majd and Al-Wafa Company for Exchange and Money Transfer: An integrated financial interface was created to ensure that the oil monetary cycle remains far from the state treasury. It receives financial flows in hard currency, speculates with them in the local market, and converts them into assets and real estate for the benefit of the ruling elite..

3. Export mechanics, cash flows, and theft mechanisms

Trade data refute the official story “Emergency stop of Banias refinery due to comprehensive maintenance” To justify the scarcity of fuel; The mechanism of export and import reveals a financial engineering aimed at double profiteering and withholding liquidity from the state’s official channels:

 Table II export mechanism format:

Step / stage	The destination and field path	Financial movement and flow mechanism / Logistics
1. Production and transportation	From the fields of Rumailan / East to the port of Tartous	Transporting heavy crude oil via tanks and pipes to the port.
2. Sea export	From the port of Tartous to international carriers	Shipping raw materials via specialized international carriers (Like a tanker Nissos Christiana).
3. Intermediation and financial flow	From intermediary companies (B Serve) To offshore accounts	Selling oil for cash (Cash in dollars) Transferring liquidity to external accounts far from the central bank.
4. Distribution of returns	From offshore accounts to inside Syria	• truncation 50%: Special security and military commissions to establish influence. • The remaining percentage: Financing the import of scarce fuel and reselling it at double free prices.

1. Export of heavy crude: Since the oil extracted from Rumailan is characterized as heavy crude that contains high levels of sulfur and is difficult to refine completely locally efficiently, it is transported via tanks and pipes to the Tartous oil port.. Huge export shipments were recorded (up to 600,000 Barrel per shipment) Via international carriers such as the tanker (Nissos Christiana).
2. Selling for liquidity (Cash): Syrian oil is not sold through barter contracts (Oil with oil)Rather, it is sold through tenders to international energy trading companies and intermediaries (Such as B Serve Energy, which is associated with the global BB Energy group). These companies pay for the shipments with immediate cash in hard currency (Dollar and euro)The shipments will later be transported to prepared refineries in the Mediterranean basin.
3. Theft lanes and parallel accounts architecture:
   • Offshore accounts: These huge funds do not enter the Ministry of Finance’s account in the Central Bank of Syria, but rather the intermediary companies transfer them to external bank accounts affiliated with the Syrian Central Bank. “Offshore companies” Registered in safe havens and run by front figures for the ruling elite.
   • Deduction of security commissions: The in between is truncated 40% to 50% From returns of shipments directly under names “Field protection fees” and”Security transportation fees”And they go as monetary financial blocks to support the military wings and stabilize the pillars of power.
   • Scarce and artificial import: Instead of using the available cash to import equivalent quantities of good fuel to fill the deficit 185 One thousand barrels per day, the front companies import only the minimum amount (about 20% to 30% Of actual need). This artificial scarcity keeps the market in a state of permanent suffocation, which allows companies to justify repeated price increases and pass on their imported shipments at obscenely free prices that generate fantastic profit margins from the pockets of citizens, in addition to diverting parts of the fuel for profitable reverse smuggling to neighboring countries..

4. Inflationary effects and living consequences on the street

LED power strip conversion from “A national resource to provide public services” to “Private safe” Speculation and financing of the security wings led to a massive inflationary wave that spread across all Syrian governorates:

• Explosion of food prices (45% – 60%): As a result of the sharp rise in diesel and mazut prices, the costs of operating farmland irrigation pumps and plowing tractors rose, and the wages of trucks transporting goods between cities and ports doubled, which directly led to unbearable record jumps in the prices of vegetables, fruits, and basic food supplies in retail markets..
• Paralysis of the small industrial and craft sector: The scarcity of official fuel and the high prices of generator diesel on the black market have led to the closure of hundreds of workshops and small factories (Especially in cities like Aleppo and the Damascus countryside). This closure caused the loss of thousands of jobs and a severe shortage of locally made goods, which opened the door to high-priced imported and smuggled goods..
• The expansion of extreme poverty: With the continuing collapse of the purchasing power of the local currency as a result of speculation led by exchange companies affiliated with the Authority, local wages and salaries no longer cover more than 5% to 10% Of the basic cost of living for an average family, paying more than 93% Of the population below the extreme poverty line, continuing the pattern “War economy and structural plunder” With modern tools that serve the ruling elite at the expense of impoverishing the Syrian street.

5. Double price map (Comparison table for the year 2026)

It highlights the difference between government prices issued in the bulletin “Temporary” For mid-September 2026, and between the real prices of front companies and the black market, the real size of the profit margins that are withheld from the state treasury.:

Table III : Map of double prices and profit margins for speculators (September 2026)

Petroleum material	Price before September 2026	Official price after modification (September 2026)	Black market price / Front companies (September 2026)	Spread percentage and direct profit margin for speculators
gasoline (octane 95)	152 Lira	195 New Syrian pound	320 – 350 New Syrian pound	exceeds 70% (Intentional scarcity in government stations)
gasoline (octane 90)	142 Lira	185 New Syrian pound	280 – 300 New Syrian pound	exceeds 60% To compensate for long waiting periods
Standard diesel (Diesel)	125 Lira	175 New Syrian pound	380 – 410 New Syrian pounds	exceeds 130% (The most wanted and smuggled substance)
Subsidized diesel	—	115 Lira (It was introduced to absorb the protests)	Not currently available (Sold as fake lots)	It is recycled in the free market in 3 Double its price
Domestic gas cylinder	1470 Lira	1600 New Syrian pound	3200 New Syrian pound	100% (Late delivery of cards and letters)

. Constitutional and legal adaptation: Deficit based on the transitional period

From the perspective of international and constitutional law, transitional governments are not legally entitled to sign long-term strategic investment contracts (Such as oil and gas concession contracts that usually extend from... 20 to 30 year); Because its primary mission is to conduct business, manage current affairs, and prepare for a period of permanent stability:

1. Missing legal cover: Major international companies are aware (Like Chevron or Total) Signing a final contract with an unelected or uncertain transitional government exposes its investments to enormous legal risks; Any future parliament could nullify these contracts as they are illegal and signed by an authority that lacks full constitutional authority.
2. Diplomatic director (Memorandums of understanding): The transitional authority and foreign companies resort to memorandums of understanding (MoUs) Because they are protocols that are not 100% legally binding, and do not entail huge penal conditions, but rather are used as a political propaganda tool to suggest the imminence of economic recovery..
3. Exploiting the legal vacuum: This legal blockage of major corporations is the fertile environment in which opaque local front companies thrive (Like Miral and the valleys); It does not care about international law or constitutional legitimacy due to its direct reliance on military influence and field reality, taking advantage of the scene remaining in a suspended state..
4. Future scenarios and security tactics to catch the boil

Firstly: Basic scenarios for the energy crisis:

1. First scenario: Install a pattern “Front companies” And the sustainability of the plundering economy
   • Guaranteed: The continuation of the new robbery structure; Where local front companies continue (Such as Al Widyan and Miral Group) Imposing its control on the oil and gas extracted and exporting it in cash to offshore accounts.
   • Living score: The local market remains at the mercy of artificial energy scarcity and periodic price increases to prevent the formation of local refining surpluses.. The state is gradually transforming into a technocratic cover that manages deficit and poverty, while real revenues become monopolized to finance the military elite, security protection, and stabilizing the foundations of power..
2. Second scenario: Total privatization and forced opening to foreign companies
   • Guaranteed: The current authority - under the weight of increasing popular unrest and protests - was forced to shift “Initial memorandums of understanding” Signed with a coalition of foreign companies to real long-term concession and investment contracts.
   • Living score: Gradually increasing local production, restarting and expanding alternative refineries, and relatively curbing the black market due to international oversight, but at the expense of the state losing its permanent sovereignty over resources to foreign companies..
3. Third scenario: Mass structural collapse and field explosion
   • Guaranteed: The citizen has reached the stage of absolute inability to keep up with price inflation, coupled with the inability of front companies to secure the minimum amount of imports as a result of the drying up of international liquidity..
   • Living score: Intense popular protests in city centers and direct social pressure may push influential networks to engage in armed conflicts over the shares of wells and reverse smuggling corridors, leading to the complete cessation of pumping facilities and stations..

secondly: The containment tactic of power (administration “Potion of suffering”):

If the influential elite feels that popular unrest has reached a point that threatens the stability of power, it will resort to the following tactical scenario to buy time instead of radical reform.:

• Reducing the deduction rate “temporarily”: Reducing liquidity deduction from 50% to 30% For a specific period and directing the difference to import emergency shipments, which will formally end the fuel queues at the stations.
• Anti-corruption play: Sacrifice of second-line managers of emerging front companies (Such as accusing a company official “Miral” or “Valleys” By the way) To make the street feel accountable, while keeping the real elite away from prosecution.
• Advertisement sponsored honors and segments: Very regulated expansion in offering “Subsidized diesel” (Agricultural and heating) To absorb the anger of farmers and families, without compromising control over the profitable free market.
• Exceptional legislation protective of Sharia: On the other hand, the Prime Minister of the Transitional Government relies on the Interim Constitutional Declaration as the supreme legal tool to enact new supra-constitutional laws and legislation that enhance national security powers and grant the presidency the right to dissolve political parties and associations.. Through these decrees, his legal team aims to protect the ruling circle and its military and security team from any future judicial prosecution or political displacement, trying to establish his individual rule, ban competing parties in the future, and extend his term to ensure his authoritarian survival under the name “Preserving transitional stability”.

Ninth:Deconstructing the phenomenon of bombings and assassinations (The crisis of internal liquidation and the struggle of the wings within the authority )

Security readings based on the accounts and reports of direct field sources inside the capital, Damascus, and the Syrian governorates indicate that the successive explosions in ammunition depots and the targeting of military leaders are not due to external targeting, but rather are a direct reflection of the battles to settle hidden internal scores and the struggle of the wings to impose absolute control.. These processes are distributed internally according to the following documentation mechanisms:

• strategy “Unloading warehouses” Systematic: Internal sources confirm that a large portion of the explosions were military warehouses (Which I reached 17 Incident until September 2026) It falls under the heading of intentional discharge and causing technical accidents through higher security decisions with clear objectives. The authority seeks to strip semi-independent military groups and foreign fighter elements (immigrants) Of the stock of high-quality and heavy weapons to force them to completely assimilate or limit their ability to rebel, while transferring advanced weapons to secret warehouses belonging exclusively to the narrow circle surrounding Al-Sharaa to ensure his superiority over his competitors such as the Muslim Brotherhood..
• Silent assassinations and purging the military structure: Behind the scenes, the security headquarters witnessed a series of physical liquidations and targeting of prominent field commanders and former members of the military councils from the merged factions. (Such as leaders in Jaysh al-Izza and Ahrar al-Sham, who objected to the composition of the Constitutional Declaration and exceptional laws.). According to internal sources, these assassinations are attributed to the authorities’ desire to get rid of “Falcons” And the radical figures whose survival constitutes an obstacle to the transitional government’s marketing of itself as “Moderate functional civil authority” In front of Washington.
• Conflict causing mutual security confusion: These events reflect the general climate of the raging conflict between the so-called national Salafist wing and the political Islam wing( Muslim Brotherhood ) Some parties affected by the engineering of the new laws deliberately fabricate security breaches to demonstrate the inability of the transitional military institution to control internal security, and thus weaken the negotiating and legislative position of the presidency..

Tenth: The ideological rooting of extremism, the absence of transitional justice, and the targeting of demographic diversity

The continued activity of systematic extremist ideology and the employment of children ('Golden' campaigns’ A model): Reports from international extremism research centers document the continued ideological infusion and intellectual mobilization of extremist jihadi and Salafist movements in the newly created Sharia and judicial institutes and academies, which keeps the embers of extremism and political takfir burning under the flimsy names of civil reform..

Despite repeated human rights warnings and demands to neutralize and deport ideologues and immigrants (In the forefront of them is the so-called “Egyptian Golden”) Regarding interference in the educational and university sectors - especially after the famous incident and blatant assault on the academic environment at the University of Damascus - however, recent field documentation proves the continuation and expansion of these ideological campaigns to target other governorates, especially in Deir ez-Zor..

Live recordings and visual evidence have documented it (See attached pictures 1-5) Organizing demonstration marches headed by sheikhs and radical ideologues that raised banners explicitly for “A campaign to adopt the legal dress code”This is under the direct protection and insurance of members of the military and security forces to confirm its authoritarian care. During these campaigns, the veil and systematic ideological indoctrination were imposed on young girls who were gathered in the streets.. Exploiting children's innocence and destroying their educational and psychological environment represents a flagrant violation of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) And a hideous authoritarian exploitation to create an ideological generation, which removes any doubt about the nature of this project and its future danger to Syria’s civil identity and civil peace..

• Ideology penetrates institutions and bulldozes the rights of women and children: Ideological infusion goes beyond theoretical frameworks to be embodied in policies for the upbringing and systematic restructuring of institutional and vital sectors. The report documents that recruits and youth in the military system are subjected to training programs and ideological covenants that perpetuate radical slogans and abolish the comprehensive national doctrine.. This is parallel to the widespread penetration of jihadist and Salafist thought into private schools and mosques, with a center targeting children and women through intellectually charged curricula and activities that confiscate freedom of belief and thought..
• These policies culminate in the transition from “Community guidance” to “Legalized tyranny” Under the dome of legislative institutions (People's Assembly), which witnessed official deliberations and demands that take the educational system back decades - such as legitimizing physical violence against children in schools, marginalizing the role of women and restricting their right to education and public empowerment.. These practices constitute a blatant and direct violation of the legal obligations of the Syrian state under the international agreements that it has ratified and become binding on, most notably the Convention on the Rights of the Child. (CRC) And the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), which threatens to dismantle civil peace and perpetuate a transient demographic and intellectual crisis for the current generation.
• Undermining transitional justice and accountability mechanisms: The deliberate absence of the issue of transitional justice, accountability and accountability for past and present violations, and limiting the current legislative mechanisms to issuing decrees fortifying de facto leaders, empties any political transition process of its legal essence.. This obstruction prevents the achievement of comprehensive national reconciliation, perpetuates civil revenge, and fuels individual and regional conflicts between the various sectors of society..
• Demographic change crimes against minorities: Reports of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria confirmed the monitoring of systematic operations to confiscate the property of absentees, silent displacement, and the illegal seizure of real estate and agricultural lands belonging to members of minorities. (Christians, Alawites, Ismailis, and Druze); These violations are internationally classified within the framework of crimes against humanity that aim to destroy the historical Syrian pluralistic fabric.

eleventh: strategy “Soft empowerment” And founding “Deep state” For political Islam movements: Societal resistance is inevitable “The revolution of the hungry”

 tactic “Technocratic interfaces” and cumulative institutional penetration: Analytical and field readings show a strategic shift in the behavior of the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam movements in Syria. As I moved from plans “Crude military or partisan control” To strategy “Soft empowerment” And founding “Deep state” Undeclared. This plan depends on circumventing the international veto and popular rejection by bringing in apparently non-partisan figures, academics, and businessmen. (Independent technocrats) As interfaces to hold vital joints. This systematic penetration is focused on cumulative control over specific sovereign ministries (Such as justice, education, finance, and endowments) To reformulate the cultural and legal identity of society, and secure the laundering of party funding and foreign political money.

 The street and civil society rejected the secret empowerment project: Contrary to expectations, the soft empowerment scheme faces mounting societal and civil resistance inside Syria. The tribal forces in the eastern region and the desert reject efforts to impose ideological guardianship or monopolize influence coming from the metropolises, while civil movements and independent elites are active in warning against... “Islamization of legislation” Demanding the imposition of financial disclosure laws and banning religious and ethnic parties. In parallel, the majority of Arab and regional countries show extreme apprehension about reproducing political Islam scenarios, linking any contribution to reconstruction or investment to strict conditions that neutralize sovereign institutions and guarantee the state’s civility and transparency..

. “The revolution of the hungry” The collapse of temporary legitimacy: In light of the parties in power preoccupied with influence engineeringWith empowerment struggles, the Syrian street is suffering from unprecedented economic deterioration and stifling hunger. Field data confirms that the inability to manage the economic and livelihood file constitutes a time bomb that will explode “Hungry revolution” Inevitability for everyone. Exploiting the living situation to impose international conditions or circumvent the aspirations of the Syrians will only lead to overthrowing the legitimacy of the technocratic facades, which forces the international community to rush to support them. “State citizenship and legislative moderation” The only alternative that guarantees the rights of everyone and prevents the disintegration of the Syrian state.

.Dimensions of temporary engineering and the risks of illegal appropriation (The expropriation of Qudsaya lands is an example):

This dual behavior reinforces the 'temporary job role' theory’ Granted to the de facto authority to prevent the situation from exploding in the region, until the strategies for the next stage become clear internally, regionally and internationally. Whether at the level of the outcomes of the American and Israeli elections, or the paths of escalation in the Iranian-American war and the proxy wars in the region, leading to a comprehensive re-engineering of the Syrian file..

However, these geopolitical bets remain threatened with imminent collapse in the event of the outbreak of a “revolution of the hungry,” the direct cause of which is structural plunder and the theft of internal resources for the benefit of the ruling and controlling elite.. The authority’s continued confiscation and appropriation of citizens’ lands in the Qudsaya area of ​​​​Damascus without providing fair compensation, and transferring them to the benefit of private companies and beneficial commercial projects, is living evidence of the policy of bulldozing private property and blackmailing the street, which was embodied in the expansion of the angry demonstrations of the people of the region in defense of their lands and their source of livelihood..

That's a peg’ Regional and international balances will not be enough to justify starving the people, robbing them of their real rights, and depriving them of the minimum requirements for subsistence. This is a scenario that will completely reshuffle the cards and upend the equations of the imagined stability in the entire region..

twelfth : Engineering systematic impoverishment and development bulldozing: Ideological exploitation of hunger and exploitation of the transitional period

1. Stifling self-sufficiency and undermining local production

Corruption under de facto authority goes beyond the scope of traditional favoritism and turns into a policy of systematic impoverishment and dispossession of the productive capabilities of Syrian society.. The report documents the systematic targeting and disruption of any local attempts to achieve self-sufficiency—whether by stifling the local agricultural sector, or hitting craft industries and small individual initiatives with excise taxes, theft, and monopolies for the benefit of new networks of influence.. This pattern seeks to transform the Syrian citizen from a productive and steadfast element into a crushed being in acute need, to institutionalize hunger and rob society of its economic independence..

2. Dismantling the real causes of economic paralysis

The report proves that the economic suffering and worsening livelihood collapse of the Syrian people—despite the lifting of some sanctions and the change in regional equations—are not the result of... “Community diversity” The authority is also trying to market it, but they are a direct result of the nature of the de facto authority with a jihadi background. The presence of foreign fighters, undisciplined elements, and the systematic tolerance of extremist intellectual infusion, along with the absence of financial oversight and governance, have paralyzed any possibility of real international support or sustainable development investments..

3. Bargaining livelihood and ideological recruitment to the army

The policy of starving and impoverishing the authentic Syrian people has turned into a malicious exploitation tool for bargaining with citizens between their daily bread or engaging in ideological mobilization and recruitment to create a non-national army based on Salafist and Brotherhood ideological loyalty.. The attempt to stabilize this authority and prolong the transitional phase for years to come is under the pretext “De facto management” It will only lead to deepening the power struggle between radical movements, destroying the societal fabric in the coast, Suwayda and other regions, and destroying the chances of establishing an inclusive constitutional and participatory life..

4. International strategic questioning

The report poses a strategic and decisive question to all regional and international powers that sponsored or contributed to the imposition of this authority:

“Can this experience be considered a successful model of stability? Or will betting on it and prolonging its transitional life inevitably lead to catastrophic adverse results that will overthrow regional and international peace and security, and an entire Syrian generation will pay the price for them?“

thirteenth: Inevitability “Civil state” As the only way to sustainable peace and removing pretexts

This comprehensive documentary report reaches a fundamental and decisive conclusion: Comprehensive peace, peaceful coexistence, and true security stability in Syria and the regional region will never be achieved through formulation “Job roles” Temporary for the conflicting powers provides permanent pretexts for foreign military interventions, the annexation of national lands, and the establishment of regional bombing hotspots whose results cannot be predicted and are directly affected by the results of the raging war against Iran.. And combating terrorism in all its forms and types

The only legal and political way out to end the state of demographic division, establish civil peace, and withdraw external pretexts requires, inevitably and without an exclusionary attack on anyone.:

1. Pure adherence to the option of a civil, democratic state based on equal citizenship, where the state is the caretaker and protector of all its children without sectarian or ideological discrimination..
2. Protecting Syria’s unique cultural and religious diversity, ensuring absolute peaceful coexistence and freedom of all beliefs and religions, in order to preserve inherent human rights and prevent any systematic persecution or intellectual arrogance..
3. Establishing a national political and legislative moderation approach that respects international conventions and laws and human rights, as a basic foundation for dismantling the hotbeds of extremist thought and terrorism in a radical and sustainable manner and pulling the rug from under the projects of systematic tyranny and the ongoing wars in the region..

Special documentation appendix: A series of major ammunition depot explosions (During the month of September 2026)

Field monitoring records a dangerous and unprecedented escalation in the frequency of incidents of bombing ammunition depots belonging to the Transitional Military Institution, as it was documented 5 Successive major explosions during 21 Only one day in September 2026 will be added to the cumulative record 17 Incident from the beginning 2025:

1. 1 September 2026 (Punch explosion – Idlib countryside): A sharp explosion of a cargo vehicle loaded with specific ammunition in the middle of a populated area, resulting in one death 5 People and injuries 8 Others and partial destruction of the residential area.
2. 9 September 2026 (Sarmada warehouse explosion – Idlib countryside): A huge explosion inside a warehouse and temporary store of weapons and ammunition belonging to the Ministry of Defense on the international highway, causing the death of... 14 One element and more than one injury 11 Others.
3. 12 September 2026 (Explosion of conscience – Damascus Countryside): Successive explosions sounded inside a barracks and a military warehouse storing ammunition and missile systems in a remote area on the outskirts of the city of Dumayr, and the official version attributed it to the ignition of damaged remnants..
4. 18 September 2026 (Ayash warehouses – Deir ez-Zor countryside): A major security disaster was represented by an unknown explosion inside a main weapons depot belonging to the Armaments Department in the desert of the town of Ayyash, west of Deir ez-Zor, which officially resulted in the death of 11 A soldier and an injury 10 Others were officially buried at the National Hospital.
5. 21 September 2026 (Al-Eis warehouse – Southern Aleppo countryside): Latest recorded incidents; Violent explosions rocked an ammunition warehouse belonging to the Ministry of Defense at dawn (It was previously subject to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), resulting in injury 4 Civilians with injuries, amputations, and shrapnel, and massive destruction that caused the Damascus-Aleppo international road to be cut off and hundreds of families to be evacuated as a result of the continued flying of random projectile missiles for hours..

Procedural supplement: Legal and implementation recommendations directed to the United Nations and international missions

Appendix No (1) Affiliate to: A fact-finding report and analysis of the reality of policies and their human rights dimensions in Syria (2026)

Based on the documentary data and geopolitical and legal analyzes contained in the body of this report, the National Council for Human Rights advances (Syria) The following procedural package is an urgent legal roadmap to prevent the collapse of civil peace and ensure a real transition towards sustainable stability:

Firstly: To the Human Rights Council and the United Nations General Assembly

• Expanding the mandate of the Independent International Investigation Commission: Demanding the Human Rights Council to extend and expand the mandate of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria to include a monitoring and documentation mechanism for silent structural violations (Such as confiscation of the property of absentees and systematic demographic change of minorities) In the coast, the south and various regions under the current de facto authority.
• Sending an urgent fact-finding mission to the south and the Syrian coast: Urging the High Commissioner for Human Rights to send a field monitoring mission to As-Suwayda Governorate, the South and the Syrian Coast to assess the security and humanitarian conditions, and to provide an international protection umbrella for civilians, to prevent the renewal of crimes documented as “War crimes and crimes against humanity”.
• Establishing an international oversight mechanism for the energy sector: Pressure on the United Nations General Assembly to establish an international governance committee responsible for monitoring the flow of oil and gas revenues east of the Euphrates, and ensuring that management of the fields is withdrawn from “Front startups” affiliated with the military wings, and transferring revenues to serve the public service and humanitarian sectors under direct international supervision to end the war economy and before the outbreak of the revolution of the hungry in Syria..

secondly: To the UN Security Council and major diplomatic missions

• Adherence to international references and Security Council resolutions: Emphasizing the illegality of any individual government system or temporary constitutional declarations formulated outside the umbrella of UN resolutions, especially the resolution 2254 (2015) And the updated decision 2799 (Nov 2025)Calling on international missions to push for international sponsorship to establish a committee to draft a permanent constitution that guarantees pluralism and full citizenship..
• Activating the process of transitional justice and accountability: Demanding the inclusion of the file of transitional justice and accountability for crimes and violations as a basic and main condition for any international recognition of the transitional process, and ensuring the establishment of independent courts and judicial mechanisms to ensure justice for victims and no impunity..
• Prohibiting exclusionary legislation, strengthening institutions, and ensuring fair competition:Demanding member states to categorically diplomatically reject all exceptional and supra-constitutional decrees and laws enacted by the de facto government to immunize military and security leaders from judicial accountability, or to exclude national components.. Emphasizing the necessity of opening the political space to all segments of Syrian society without exception, while imposing strict laws for transparency and financial disclosure that prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam movements from exploiting poverty and hunger or using foreign political money to control parties through misleading technocratic or civil facades..
• Review and dismantle counter-terrorism strategies “Job role”: Urging the US administration and the European Union to disengage from the pragmatic strategic engagement with what is known as “Control laboratory” He rejected the formula “Dual job role”, based on the White House Counterterrorism Strategy for 2017 2026 Which confirms that the Muslim Brotherhood organization and its movements are the founding source of extremist groups. Emphasizing in international forums that ignoring the legacy of extremism and the penetration of political Islam represents a regional danger that reproduces cross-border penetration scenarios. (like 11 September and October 7).

Third: General human rights recommendations to protect Syrian identity and withdraw pretexts

• Immediate cessation of internal liquidations and random discharging of weapons: Obliging the transitional authority, through strict diplomatic sanctions, to stop forced and indiscriminate disarmament operations and the bombing of warehouses that terrorize civilians and cause casualties and internal displacement crises. (As happened in the annex to the September bombings 2026).
• Obliging regional parties to stop the annexation of lands: Withdrawal of legal and military pretexts used by external powers; By demanding that Israel end its occupation and its new incursion into the buffer zone and the Golan, and demanding that Türkiye end its cross-border ideological projects, and emphasizing that the sovereignty and independence of Syrian lands is a supreme security interest for the region.. And restoring an international regional agreement that guarantees the rights of the Syrian people and ensuring the security of regional dialogue to achieve economic cooperation, lasting peace in the region, and peaceful and civilized coexistence among all religions..
• Laying foundations “National civil state”: Calling on the Syrian national blocs, civil movements, and civil society organizations in the diaspora and at home to form a united front that applies international pressure to impose peaceful coexistence, freedom of beliefs, and total legislative moderation as the only and legitimate alternative to legalized tyranny and ideological quotas..

Approved international references and documents:

1. UN Security Council: Resolution 2254 (2015) & Resolution 2799 (November 2025) – Reference decisions regarding the political transition, the transitional governing body, and international legitimacy in Syria.
2. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (UNHRC): Reports and statements of the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry for 2017 2025 and 2026, especially documentation devoted to violations of Suwayda, the south, the Syrian coastal strip, the confiscation of minority properties, and demographic change..
3. U.S. Government & House Foreign Affairs Committee: U.S. National Strategy for Counterterrorism (2026) & Congress Hearings – Updated White House Counterterrorism Strategy for 2017 2026 Congressional research reports on the role of the Muslim Brotherhood and Syrian lobbies in Washington.
4. The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) & ICCT: Studies monitoring the structures of extremism, ideology, and cross-border intellectual mobilization campaigns, and tracking the organization of the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist groups in the Middle East. (2026).
5. Amnesty International & Human Rights Watch (HRW): Special human rights documentation issued by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch for the year 2025 And 2026 regarding the status of minorities, forced displacement, crimes against humanity, and property confiscation in the coast and the south.
6. The National Council for Human Rights (Syria): Documentation, field reports, and internal sources in Damascus and the governorates regarding ammunition depot explosions, internal liquidations, and energy sector violations. (2025–2026).
7. List of references and international legal frameworks for the eighth axis :
8. Firstly: Local official statements and declarations
9. 1. The Ministry of Energy and the Syrian Petroleum Company: Press conference and official statements related to production capacity (112 Thousand barrels/day) And operational deficit, Damascus/Hasakah (Mid-September 2026).
10. 2. Statements of the Minister of Energy (Muhammad Al-Bashir): The official statement regarding the emergency stoppage of the Banias refinery and the expiration of oil grant shipments, September 2026.
11. secondly: International instruments and standards for governance and human rights
12. 3. United nations: United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), article (9) Related to transparency in the management of public funds and contracts.
13. 4. United nations: International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), article (1) (The right of peoples to freely dispose of their wealth) And matter (11) (The right to an adequate standard of living).
14. 5. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GO): International standard for governance and disclosure of oil, gas and mining contracts.

27-09-2026

National Council For rights The human – Syrian

Z. Qutaiba Qasem Arab – President

#Strategic_Report #Syria #De facto_authority #Muslim_Brotherhood #Ideological_Salafism #Soft_Empowerment #Deep_State #Structural_Looting #Qudsiya #Confiscation_of_Property #Hungry_Revolution #Child_Recruitment #Golden_Campaign #Deir_ez-Zor #Human_Rights #Washington_Strategy 2026 #Anti-Terrorism #Counter_State#theft_Oil #looting_Energy #Resources_Sovereign #economy_Confiscation#Excise_Derivatives_Oil

To view the report on our website in pdf, link below

https://www.scjrrcy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Fact-Finding-Report-and-Analysis-of-Political-Realities-and-Their-Human-Rights-Dimensions-in-Syria.pdf

Fact-Finding and Policy Reality Analysis Report on Syria and its Human Rights Dimensions

 Issuing Authority:

National Council for Human Rights – Syria

 Publication Type:

Analytical & Fact-Finding Report (Geopolitical & Human Rights Dimensions) – Syria (2025–2026)

(Strategic Assessment of Political Realities, National Sovereignty, and Human Rights Frameworks)

 In Strategic Collaboration & Support with:

 Syrian Civil Society National Movement

 Free Democratic Nationalists Movement

 Syrian Committee for Strategic Studies & Research

Executive Summary

This analytical and documentation report monitors the dynamics of the contemporary Syrian landscape during the transitional phase (2025–2026). The publication aims to establish facts and examine the emerging legislative, political, and economic reality following the fall of the previous regime and the assumption of power by Ahmed al-Sharaa’s transitional government (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Julani) under a temporary constitutional declaration.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the international exception granted to the de facto authority, regional power struggles, and the systematic depletion of the energy sector along with its impact on the economic crisis, the suffering of the Syrian people, skyrocketing prices, and the internal security crisis manifested in intra-factional liquidations and military depot explosions. Furthermore, it evaluates the human rights dimensions regarding violations against minorities and abuses in southern and coastal Syria.

The report also unveils a systematic policy of engineered impoverishment and the deliberate erosion of local productive capacity and self-sufficiency initiatives, wherein hunger and economic deprivation are weaponized to force citizens into choosing between basic survival and ideological alignment for non-national, indoctrinated military recruitment—thereby placing the prolongation of the transitional phase and the international gamble upon it at risk of catastrophic regional outcomes, highlighting the imperative of transitioning toward a “civil state” model as the sole sustainable path to establishing civil peace and regional stability.

Methodological Note on Geopolitical Transitions and the Scope of Accountability

“This report’s focus on the practices of the current de facto authority, its entanglements with ideological currents and the emerging regional influence (Turkish), as well as the documentation of human rights violations, war crimes, and economic rights abuses, is inextricably linked to the historical accumulation of the crisis. The Council considers the current institutional fragility and structural collapse to be the direct outcome of years of military influence, Iranian hegemony, and grave violations committed alongside the previous regime, which eroded national state institutions and its economy. While this presence has receded in favor of new dynamics, human rights and legal duties necessitate directing accountability and analysis toward ‘whomever exercises effective control over Syrian land, resources, and decision-making in the 2025–2026 phase’, free from alignment with regional axes or polarizations, solely to promote and protect the human rights of all segments and components of the Syrian people.”

 I.: The Dialectic of Dual Exception and the Paradox of the 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy

1. Political Engineering and Lobbying Operations

 Contemporary Western foreign policy is undergoing a qualitative pragmatic shift driven by on-the-ground dynamics of control. While U.S. and European state institutions maintain rigorous legal designations and criminalization against political and jihadi Islamist groups across regional branches, the Syrian case has been granted a tangible exception. This legislative workaround is attributed to intensive lobbying by U.S.- and European-based Syrian coalitions supported by transnational Muslim Brotherhood networks, aimed at marketing the de facto authority under Ahmed al-Sharaa as the sole “functional partner” and packaging political Islam into Western-acceptable technocratic forms.

2. “Area Severance” Strategy and Phased Prioritization

This acceptance transcends mere responses to interest groups, intersecting with an overarching regional strategy aimed at “severing operational arenas” for Iranian proxies. The de facto authority is utilized as a geographical buffer isolating Syria’s interior from Iran’s logistical corridor (Iraq-Lebanon). In this context, and in alignment with the U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy (2026)—which explicitly designated the Iranian regime as the ‘world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism’—a phased hierarchy of international priorities is rendered imperative. Accordingly, focus is directed toward neutralizing the immediate Iranian threat as a pressing priority, paving the way to address all remaining threat vectors with equal resolve. These core threats encompass ideological extremism represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, alongside violent far-left extremism, and transregional terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K).

3. Legislative Rivalry and Structural Divergence

 The de facto authority exploits the absence of a permanent constitution to impose a legal reality through codified authoritarianism. Legislative analysis reveals a clear organizational and ideological boundary between the governing “Jihad Salafism” wing led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Muslim Brotherhood—rendering their alliance pragmatic rather than structural. The Muslim Brotherhood is exerting rigorous effort within legislative committees and the appointed transitional parliament to pass party laws allowing ideologically driven associations to infiltrate syndicates, municipalities, and state apparatuses. This strategy aims to leverage ballot boxes to marginalize Ahmed al-Sharaa upon the conclusion of the proposed five-year transitional phase, perpetuating covert internal struggles for institutional control.

4. Paradox with the 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Doctrine

 The climax of legal inconsistency emerges when aligning these legislative movements with the updated 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy. The strategy explicitly highlights the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots as foundational ideological sources feeding contemporary terrorist organizations. While U.S. doctrine categorizes these movements as root drivers of violent extremism, a functional omission is observed regarding their infiltration into legislative drafting, the appointed Syrian parliament, and the transitional governance structure—highlighting a distinct contradiction between declared counterterrorism strategy and temporary geopolitical maneuvers.

II. The “Counterterrorism Laboratory” Model and the Controversy of Ideological Penetration (The Great Strategic Deception)

 The Counterterrorism Lab and the Illusion of Offering “Scapegoats”: In our geopolitical analysis of current policies, the Syrian exception represents an extremely complex experimental and intelligence model, grounded in a Western premise that extremism can be eliminated through extremism (“cleansing radicalism with radicalism”). The current transitional authority plays a dual functional role: it is called upon to offer its former radical elements and non-compliant foreign fighters as “scapegoats” through liquidations and systematic depot explosions to prove its international worthiness to Washington, as well as maintaining tacit cooperation to contain the legacy of al-Qaeda. Under this approach, the U.S. Department of State’s action to remove Jabhat al-Nusra from terrorist designation lists served as an incentive and direct political support for Ahmed al-Sharaa, aiming to facilitate the attraction and dismantling of these groups.

 Legacy of Shared Ties and the Impossibility of Reliability: Field realities and human rights documentation doctrines reveal a structural flaw in this model. The military and religious-doctrinal structures under Ahmed al-Sharaa entirely lack security reliability due to organic linkages, a shared jihadi history, and long-standing ideological and logistical overlap among its elements with organizations such as ISIS, al-Qaeda, and al-Nusra. Current indicators in Damascus suggest deep suspicions that Ahmed al-Sharaa is managing a “dual role through implicit and tacit agreement with these cells.” Instead of the artificial success by the West in containing jihadism, this trajectory functionally strengthens, protects, and provides legal and financial cover for these elements under the umbrella of state institutions and its unified national army, portending the emergence of an “institutionalized jihadi army” in the near future.

 Historical Deception and Fears of Transnational Penetration: This reality is classified as the largest strategic and intelligence deception in modern history benefiting al-Qaeda and its affiliate currents, evoking the same miscalculations that preceded the September 11 attacks and October 7 scenarios. Hence stems deep Israeli concern: regardless of Western decision-makers assuming “good faith” or a pragmatic transformation in the persona of Ahmed al-Sharaa, controlling thousands of ideologically driven fighters remains militarily unviable.

 Dismantling the Iranian Axis and the Alternative “Ottoman Project”: These data points acquire a dangerous dimension when linked to the Turkish role. Ankara possesses long-standing historical relations with these organizations dating back to the former regime era, including facilitating their transit. Following the collapse and dissolution of the Iranian axis in the region, radical movements—guided and directed by Ottoman Islamist discourse—seek to utilize Syrian geography as a launchpad for an alternative transnational project under slogans of “reaching Jerusalem” and constructing a “New Ottoman Crescent.” This alternative ideological expansion completely undermines the premise of functional stability and turns the current transitional framework into a hub for intellectual and military export, threatening the security and stability of the entire Middle East.

 Fears of a New “October 7” and Israeli Justifications: This functional role—built on security maneuvers and the containment of radical ideological groups—raises fundamental and deep-seated concerns in Tel Aviv. Israeli security circles express grave anxiety that this unstable model could precipitate a “new October 7 scenario” launched as a sudden shock from the northern border. This apprehension strips away any remaining confidence in crafting regional peace through this authority, providing Israel with immediate legal and security justification before the international community to impose an “on-the-ground military reality” through its incursions and occupation of the buffer zone in the Golan, parts of Quneitra, and Mount Hermon as proactive protective measures.

III. The Turkish-Israeli Influence Struggle and the Collapsed “Pre-Fall” Understandings

 Liquidation of Pre-Fall Understandings: Political assessments of current policy realities indicate that unannounced understandings occurred prior to the fall of Damascus, brokered by international and regional actors to facilitate the collapse of the regime. These understandings were grounded in promises to stabilize the scene, prevent the expansion of extremist movements, and dismantle military logistical infrastructure to secure both Israeli and Turkish borders alike.

 The Turkish Role as Godfather of the Functional Role: Ankara’s desire to lead and govern the Syrian landscape and prevent the establishment of independent Kurdish entities aligned with the U.S. desire to find a central authority capable of controlling the ground. This prompted Turkey to act as a godfather in convincing the White House of the viability of retaining and supporting Ahmed al-Sharaa. However, the unchecked rise of the transitional government and the deep penetration of Turkish influence into the apparatus of the Syrian state led to a direct collision with Israel. Tel Aviv views the new Syria as a “geopolitical extension and proxy for Ankara” on its borders, driving the Israeli Air Force to execute strategic strikes deep within Syrian territory (such as bombing the runways at the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Idlib to prevent the deployment and positioning of Turkish forces there).

IV. The Dual Arab Position and the Conflict of Covert and Overt Balances

 Declared Position and Official Discourse: The overt official discourse of Arab moderation states rests on the absolute rejection of reproducing extremist religious rule or empowering the Muslim Brotherhood movement within the levers of legislation, the appointed parliament, and constitutional committees in Syria. These states view the growing influence of Islamist blocs as a transnational threat that strategically undermines Arab national security and destabilizes the region.

 Pragmatic Covert Coordination and Funding: Conversely, pragmatic readings reveal a flow of direct financial support and intelligence coordination from those very same Arab capitals with Ahmed al-Sharaa. This contradiction stems from geopolitical calculations aimed at employing the new central authority in Damascus as a buffer to prevent Turkish-backed armed factions in the north from seizing further Syrian territory, while building a security framework capable of securing shared borders and curtailing the activities of terrorist and rogue groups that threaten neighbor state security.

VI. The Reality of the Kurdish Street Between Leadership Pressures and Constitutional Tug-of-War

 Leadership Retreats under Pressure from Washington and Ankara: Field-based assessments in Northeastern Syria reveal a pivotal shift in the Kurdish landscape. The former military leadership of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—led by Mazloum Abdi—yielded to strict external and international pressures and dictates. These imposed superficial understandings and mergers with the transitional authority in Damascus. This trajectory followed the reduction and dismantling of the structural influence of non-Syrian Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) elements within the leadership apparatus, aimed at averting a comprehensive Turkish military offensive and neutralizing Ankara’s security pretexts.

 Simmering Kurdish Street and Public Rejection of Superficial Understandings: On the opposing end, this top-down negotiation path faces simmering public discontent and widespread civil mobilization across the national Kurdish street, encompassing its various political and social forces. The Kurdish populace categorically rejects these “temporary understandings,” viewing them as a sacrifice of historical political rights. They emphasize that the integration of military leadership under the umbrella of the de facto authority does not reflect their legitimate aspirations as an indigenous component of the region.

 Constitutional Imperative and Reinstating the Indigenous Component: The Kurdish street and national civil forces insist that the Kurdish cause must not be reduced to security arrangements or subordinate administrative statuses. Instead, they demand explicit and clear constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people as a “primary and indigenous component” in the new Syrian state, alongside guaranteeing their linguistic, cultural, and political rights within the framework of the permanent constitution. They assert that the continued disregard for these rights or the enforcement of legislative despotism will leave Northeastern Syria as a permanent flashpoint and hotbed of instability, threatening the cohesion of the entire transitional state.

VII. Proving Foreign Intervention, Relinquishing National Sovereignty, and the Reproduction of Dependency

 Providing Pretexts for Regional Interventions and Sovereign Violation:

Field and political evidence confirms that the de facto authority is directly responsible for violating Syrian sovereignty and supplying justified pretexts for foreign interventions. Systematic crimes and violations committed against indigenous components in the South (Druze), the Coast (Alawites), and the Northeast (Kurds) provided immediate justification for Israel and regional powers to intervene militarily under the guise of border security and component protection. Concurrently, the authority’s tolerance and showcase of radical groups raising cross-border slogans (such as “liberating Jerusalem” and “eliminating Jews”) undermines the concept of a responsible state and places Syria under international security containment.

 Reproduction of Foreign Dependency (“The Pseudo-Legitimacy of Alliances”):

In a stark political paradox, the current authority replicates the exact practices of the former Assad regime. While the previous regime legitimized Iranian presence and militias under the guise of “sovereign alliances and legitimate requests,” the current authority practices absolute dependency on Turkey under the pretext of “Syria’s sovereign right to alliances.” Trading away Syrian national decision-making and subordinating the state to regional projects directly holds this authority responsible for entrenching foreign occupations, fragmenting Syrian geography, and turning the country into an arena for regional score-settling at the expense of Syrian lives and dignity.

VIII. Economic Depletion and Energy Sector Governance: Deconstructing the System of Disguised Privatization and Shadow Networks (2026)

1. Digital Map of Production and Structural Deficit (Reality of Major Fields) Field data and economic indicators for 2026 reveal a severe structural deficit between domestic production volume and actual demand—a deficit used by the authority as a cover to justify ongoing crises, while in reality being exploited to push through unannounced resource privatization:

• The Numerical Deficit Equation: Syria requires 300,000 barrels of oil daily to cover minimum domestic market needs. Conversely, total actual domestic production for 2026 amounts to only about 115,000 barrels per day, representing a gap and a daily shortage exceeding 60%.
• Rumeilan Field Complex (Hasakah): Represents the primary and largest stable oil block currently, with an output of approximately 80,000 barrels per day. Despite signing initial memorandums of understanding with foreign companies (such as the American HKN), actual production continues to be managed locally and through parallel channels, with most classified as heavy crude oil.
• Al-Omar Oil Field (Deir zor): Suffers from massive destruction affecting pumping networks and vital facilities; despite containing over 450 wells, its current production fluctuates between 5,000 and a maximum of 20,000 barrels per day—a negligible fraction compared to its historical capacity.
• Al-Tanak Oil Field (Deir zor): Subjected to systematic infrastructure destruction ranging from 90% to 95%, with current production limited to primitive rehabilitation attempts of individual wells yielding between 3,000 and 5,000 barrels per day only.

Table 1: Digital Map of Major Oil & Gas Fields and Actual Production (2026)

Field / Oil Complex	Geographic Location	Real Control & Field Management	Actual Daily Production (2026)	Capacity / Technical Status of Infrastructure
Rumeilan Field Complex	Hasakah Governorate	Parallel Security Management / Front Companies (Miral)	~ 80,000 bpd	Relatively stable production (heavy crude); represents the main backbone for export.
Al-Omar Oil Field	Deir ez-Zor Countryside	Front Companies Management (Al-Widian)	5,000 – 20,000 bpd	Massive destruction of pumping stations; operating at a fraction of its 450-well capacity.
Al-Tanak Oil Field	Deir ez-Zor Countryside	Security Oversight / Local Front Companies	3,000 – 5,000 bpd	90% – 95% destroyed; limited to primitive rehabilitation of individual wells.
Total Domestic Production	All Recovered Fields	Parallel Channels & Shadow Companies	~ 115,000 bpd	Daily deficit exceeding 60% compared to actual national demand (300,000 bpd).

2. Strategy of “Front Companies” and the Shadow Economy

Given the prolonged absence of legal and security stability, major international corporations refrained from commencing genuine, direct investments on the ground. Rather than subjecting recovered fields to the oversight of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, management of the East Euphrates wealth was transferred to newly formed, obscure private investment firms established locally. These entities serve as technocratic civil fronts directly subordinate to military commanders within Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the ruling elite:

 Al-Widian Investment Group: Emerged as a technocratic civil facade specializing in managing logistical contracts and rehabilitating damaged individual wells in the Deir ez-Zor countryside. It functions as a legal cover to conceal the military identity of the true beneficiaries of production revenues.

 Miral Energy and Oilfield Services: Established under the guise of providing “technical and logistical services,” it maintains complete oversight over fleets of oil transport tankers traveling from Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor fields toward the Syrian coast, while controlling free-market allocations.

 Al-Majd and Al-Wafa Money Exchange and Remittance Company: An integrated financial front created to ensure the oil cash cycle remains detached from the state treasury. It receives foreign currency inflows, speculates with them in the domestic market, and converts them into assets and real estate for the ruling elite.

3. Mechanics of Export, Cash Flows, and Mechanisms of Siphoning

Commercial data refutes the official narrative citing the “emergency shutdown of the Baniyas Refinery for comprehensive maintenance” to justify fuel shortages. Instead, the mechanics of export and import expose a financial engineering scheme aimed at double profiteering and withholding liquidity from official state channels:

Flowchart Representation (Mechanism of Export & Cash Flows)

Stage / Phase	Entity & Field Pathway	Mechanism of Flow & Financial/Logistical Channel
1. Production & Transport	From Rumeilan Fields / East to Tartous Port	Transporting heavy crude via tankers and pipelines directly to the port.
2. Maritime Export	From Tartous Port to International Tankers	Shipping crude via specialized international vessels (e.g., Nissos Christiana).
3. Intermediation & Cash Flow	From Intermediary Companies (B Serve) to Offshore Accounts	Selling oil for cash (USD) and transferring liquidity to offshore accounts outside the Central Bank.
4. Revenue Allocation	From Offshore Accounts to Domestic Market	• 50% Deduction: Special security/military commissions to solidify regime power. • Remaining Balance: Funding minimal fuel imports to resell domestically at extortionate free-market prices.

1. Exporting Heavy Crude: Since oil extracted from Rumeilan is characterized as heavy crude with high sulfur content that is difficult to fully refine locally with efficiency, it is transported via tankers and pipelines to the Tartous oil port. Massive export shipments (reaching up to 600,000 barrels per shipment) have been recorded via international vessels, such as the tanker (Nissos Christiana).
2. Sales for Cash Liquidity: Syrian oil is not sold through barter contracts (oil-for-oil); rather, it is sold via tenders to international and intermediary energy trading firms (such as B Serve Energy, which is linked to the global BB Energy group). These companies pay for shipments in immediate cash liquidity in hard currency (USD and EUR), with shipments subsequently transported to equipped refineries across the Mediterranean basin.
3. Siphoning Conduits and Parallel Account Architecture:
   • Offshore Accounts: These vast sums do not enter the Ministry of Finance’s account at the Central Bank of Syria. Instead, intermediary firms transfer them to external bank accounts belonging to “offshore entities” registered in safe havens, managed by proxy figures on behalf of the ruling elite.
   • Deduction of Security Commissions: Between 40% and 50% of shipment revenues are directly deducted under the guise of “field protection fees” and “security transport fees,” flowing as cash blocks to fund military wings and consolidate power.
   • Artificial and Scarce Imports: Rather than using available cash liquidity to import parallel quantities of refined fuel to cover the 185,000 bpd deficit, front companies deliberately import only the bare minimum (about 20% to 30% of actual needs). This artificial scarcity keeps the market in a state of perpetual suffocation, allowing companies to justify repeated price hikes and pass off imported fuel at extortionate free-market prices—yielding astronomical profit margins at the expense of citizens, while diverting portions of fuel toward lucrative reverse-smuggling into neighboring countries.

4. Inflationary Impact and Living Consequences on the Public Transforming the energy sector from a “national resource supporting public services” into a “private slush fund” for speculation and funding security apparatuses has triggered a crushing inflationary wave across all Syrian governorates:

• Spike in Food Commodity Prices (45% – 60%): Due to the sharp rise in diesel and fuel oil prices, operational costs for agricultural irrigation pumps and plowing tractors soared, while freight truck rates between cities and ports doubled. This directly caused unprecedented leaps in the retail prices of vegetables, fruits, and basic food staples.
• Paralysis of Small Industrial and Artisan Sectors: The scarcity of official fuel and rising black-market generator diesel prices led to the closure of hundreds of small workshops and factories (particularly in cities like Aleppo and Rural Damascus). These shutdowns resulted in thousands of lost jobs and an acute shortage of locally manufactured goods, paving the way for expensive imported and smuggled goods.
• Expansion of Extreme Poverty: With the continuous collapse of local currency purchasing power driven by currency speculation led by regime-affiliated exchange houses, local wages and salaries cover no more than 5% to 10% of the basic living costs for an average family. This has pushed over 93% of the population below the extreme poverty line, institutionalizing a “war economy and structural plunder” model through modernized mechanisms that serve the ruling elite at the expense of impoverishing the public.

5. Dual Pricing Map (2026 Comparison Table) The divergence between government prices published in the “interim” mid-September 2026 bulletin and the actual prices charged by front companies and the black market highlights the true scale of profit margins withheld from the state treasury:

Table 2: Dual Pricing Map and Profit Margins for Speculators (September

 2026)

Petroleum Product	Price Before Sept 2026	Official Adjusted Price (Sept 2026)	Black Market / Front Companies Price (Sept 2026)	Price Variance & Direct Profit Margin for Speculators
Gasoline (Octane 95)	152 SYP	195 New SYP	320 – 350 New SYP	Exceeds 70% (artificial scarcity at state pumps)
Gasoline (Octane 90)	142 SYP	185 New SYP	280 – 300 New SYP	Exceeds 60% (extracting rents from long wait times)
Standard Diesel	125 SYP	175 New SYP	380 – 410 New SYP	Exceeds 130% (most demanded & smuggled fuel)
Subsidized Diesel	—	115 New SYP (issued to quell protests)	Virtually unavailable (sold via phantom quotas)	Recycled into the free market at 3x the official price
Domestic LPG Cylinder	1,470 SYP	1,600 New SYP	3,200 New SYP	100% (delays in card/smart-message distribution)

Analytical Note: The security framework governing shadow companies deliberately supplies official fuel stations with only about 20% of their allocations to project the crisis as official, while pumping the remaining majority (80%) directly into unmonitored private distribution networks at extortionate free-market prices.

6. Constitutional and Legal Adaptation: Deficit Rooted in the Transitional Phase From a international and constitutional law perspective, transitional governments lack the legal authority to sign long-term strategic investment contracts (such as oil and gas concession agreements typically spanning 20 to 30 years). Their fundamental mandate is restricted to interim administration, handling routine affairs, and preparing the ground for permanent stability:

1. The Missing Legal Cover: Major international corporations (such as Chevron or Total) recognize that signing a binding contract with an unelected or uncertain transitional government exposes their investments to immense legal risks. Any future elected parliament could invalidate these contracts as illegitimate, having been signed by an authority lacking full constitutional legitimacy.
2. The Diplomatic Way Out (Memorandums of Understanding): Transitional authorities and foreign firms resort to Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) because they serve as non-binding protocols carrying no major financial penalties, functioning primarily as political propaganda tools to signal impending economic recovery.
3. Exploiting the Legal Vacuum: This legal deadlock facing major corporations creates a fertile environment for obscure local front companies (such as Miral and Al-Widian) to thrive. Unconcerned with international law or constitutional legitimacy, these entities rely directly on military influence and field dominance, capitalizing on the suspended political state.
4. . Future Scenarios and Security Tactics to Contain Public Discontent

First: Core Scenarios for the Energy Crisis:

1. Scenario One: Consolidating the “Front Company” Model and Sustaining the Plunder Economy
   • Mechanism: Persistence of the modernized predatory framework, wherein local front companies (such as Al-Widian Group and Miral) maintain their grip over extracted oil and gas, exporting it for cash into offshore accounts.
   • Socioeconomic Impact: The domestic market remains trapped under artificial energy scarcity and periodic price hikes to prevent local refining surpluses. The state gradually degrades into a technocratic facade managing deficit and poverty, while actual revenues remain strictly monopolized to finance the military elite, security protection, and regime survival.
2. Scenario Two: Total Privatization and Forced Opening to Foreign Firms
   • Mechanism: Driven by mounting public discontent and protests, the current authority is compelled to convert initial MoUs signed with foreign corporate alliances into genuine long-term investment and concession contracts.
   • Socioeconomic Impact: Domestic production gradually increases, alternative refineries are rehabilitated and expanded, and the black market is relatively reined in through international oversight—albeit at the cost of permanently forfeiting state sovereignty over national resources to foreign corporations.
3. Scenario Three: Structural Collapse and Field Explosion
   • Mechanism: Citizens reach a state of absolute inability to keep pace with price inflation, compounded by front companies’ failure to secure minimum fuel imports due to drying international hard currency liquidity.
   • Socioeconomic Impact: Eruption of severe popular protests in urban centers and direct social pressure that could drive rival influence networks into armed internal conflict over well shares and reverse-smuggling corridors, leading to a complete shutdown of pumping stations and facilities.

Second: The Authority’s Containment Tactic (Managing the “Dose of Suffering”): Should the ruling elite feel that popular outrage has reached a threshold threatening regime stability, they will deploy the following tactical scenario to buy time rather than implement structural reform:

• “Temporary” Reduction of Deductions: Momentarily reducing liquidity deductions from 50% to 30% for a limited period and directing the difference toward emergency imports to cosmetically clear fuel queues at state stations.
• Anti-Corruption Theater: Sacrificing secondary scapegoats among mid-level executives of newly formed front companies (e.g., charging an official at Miral or Al-Widian with monopolistic practices and removing them) to create an illusion of accountability while keeping the core elite immune from prosecution.
• Announcing Handouts and Subsidized Tiers: Heavily rationed expansion in releasing “subsidized diesel” (for agriculture and heating) to absorb the anger of farmers and households, without forfeiting control over the lucrative free market.

IX. Legislative Tug-of-War and the Paradox of the White House 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy

The de facto authority exploits the absence of a permanent constitution to impose a legal reality serving its narrow interests through mechanisms of codified authoritarianism:

 Structural Differentiation and Intersecting Interests Between the Muslim Brotherhood and “National Salafism” (Ahmed al-Sharaa): Legislative analysis reveals a clear organizational and ideological distinction between the ruling “National Salafism” wing led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Muslim Brotherhood. Their alliance is not a structural merger, but rather a pragmatic partnership driven by intersecting and transitional interests. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allied factions are exerting rigorous legal efforts within legislative committees and the appointed transitional parliament to pass political parties laws that allow associations with ideological and religious backgrounds to penetrate syndicates, municipalities, and state levers. Their objective is to control the ballot box and prepare to oust Ahmed al-Sharaa as soon as the assumed five-year transitional phase concludes, thereby perpetuating a state of covert intra-factional competition for power and legislation.

 Glaring Contradiction with Washington’s 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy: The peak of this legal and political contradiction emerges when matching these moves against the updated U.S. National Strategy for Counterterrorism issued in 2026. The U.S. strategy explicitly underscores and holds the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots primarily responsible as the foundational source and core ideology from which all contemporary jihadi and terrorist organizations draw sustenance and propagate. While U.S. counterterrorism doctrine classifies these groups as the foundational source of radical thought, the penetration of these very political Islam currents into drafting legislation, the appointed Syrian parliament, and the structure of the transitional authority in Damascus is functionally overlooked. This demonstrates the retreat of values-based and human rights dimensions in favor of temporary, pragmatic geopolitical calculations.

“In this context, and in alignment with the U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy (2026)—which explicitly designated the Iranian regime as the ‘world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism’—a phased hierarchy of international priorities is rendered imperative. Accordingly, focus is directed toward neutralizing the immediate Iranian threat as a pressing priority, paving the way to address all remaining threat vectors with equal resolve. These core threats encompass ideological extremism represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, alongside violent far-left extremism, and transregional terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K).”

 Exceptional Protective Legislation for al-Sharaa: Conversely, the head of the transitional government relies on the temporary constitutional declaration as a supreme legal instrument to enact novel supra-constitutional laws and legislation that expand national security powers and grant the presidency the authority to dissolve political parties and associations. Through these decrees, his legal team aims to immunize the ruling inner circle along with its military and security apparatus from any future judicial prosecution or political removal—attempting to solidify his individual rule, outlaw competing parties, and extend his term to guarantee his authoritarian survival under the guise of “preserving transitional stability.”

X. Deconstructing the Phenomenon of Explosions and Assassinations (The Crisis of Intra-Factional Liquidations and Power Struggles Within the Regime)

Security assessments based on direct field accounts and source reports within Damascus and Syrian governorates indicate that the successive explosions at ammunition depots and the targeted killings of military commanders do not stem from external attacks. Rather, they directly reflect covert internal score-settling and a power struggle among competing factions to assert absolute control. Internal documentation details these operations across the following mechanisms:

 Systematic “Depot Depletion” Strategy: Internal sources confirm that a major portion of the military depot explosions (totaling 17 incidents up to September 2026) falls under deliberate emptying and staged technical accidents executed via high-level security directives with clear objectives. The ruling authority seeks to strip semi-independent military groups and foreign fighters (al-Muhajirun) of their specialized and heavy arms stockpiles to force their full integration or curtail their capacity to rebel. Meanwhile, advanced weaponry is transferred to secret depots exclusively controlled by the tight inner circle surrounding al-Sharaa to maintain tactical superiority over rivals such as the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

 Silent Assassinations and Purging the Military Structure: Behind the scenes across security headquarters, a series of physical liquidations and targeted attacks have eliminated prominent field commanders and former military council members from merged factions (such as leaders from Jaysh al-Izza and Ahrar al-Sham who opposed the structure of the Constitutional Declaration and exceptional laws). Internal sources attribute these assassinations to the authority’s desire to purge “hardliners” and radical figures whose continued presence hinders the transitional government from marketing itself to Washington as a “moderate, functional civilian authority.”

 Engendering Reciprocal Security Turmoil: These developments reflect the broader climate of fierce conflict between the “National Salafism” wing and the political Islam wing. Certain factions adversely affected by the engineering of new laws deliberately trigger security breaches to expose the transitional military establishment’s inability to maintain internal order, thereby undermining the presidency’s negotiating and legislative standing.

XI. Ideological Grounding of Extremism, Absence of Transitional Justice, and Targeting Demographic Diversity

Persistence of Systemic Extremist Ideology and the Exploitation of Children (The ‘Al-Dhahabi’ Campaigns as a Case Study):

Reports from international extremism research centers document the continuous ideological indoctrination and intellectual mobilization of hardline Salafi and jihadi currents within newly established Sharia and judicial academies and institutes. This ongoing campaign keeps the embers of political takfirism and radicalism burning under the guise of flimsy civic and reformist labels.

Despite repeated human rights warnings and demands to neutralize and exclude foreign ideologues and foreign fighters—chief among them the individual known as ‘Al-Dhahabi Al-Masri’—from interfering in the educational and university sectors (particularly following the well-documented, blatant infringement on the academic environment at Damascus University), recent field documentation demonstrates the continuation and expansion of these ideological campaigns to target other provinces, most notably Deir ez-Zor.

Live visual evidence and field documentation (see attached Figures 1–5) demonstrate parade-like rallies led by radical clerics carrying explicit banners for the “Tudh-habi Campaign for Islamic Dress.” Notably, these rallies were conducted under the direct escort and military protection of armed uniformed forces, confirming institutional sanction and endorsement. Throughout these campaigns, young, school-aged girls were mobilized in the streets, forcibly veiled, and subjected to systemic ideological indoctrination. This exploitation of children’s innocence and the systemic erosion of their educational and psychological environment constitute a flagrant violation of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and a severe authoritarian abuse aimed at rearing an indoctrinated generation. This leaves no room for doubt regarding the true nature of this project and its future threat to Syria’s civic identity and social cohesion.

Ideological Penetration of Institutions and the Erosion of Women’s and Children’s Rights: Ideological indoctrination has transitioned beyond theoretical frameworks into systematic policies targeting vital state sectors. The report documents the exposure of young recruits within the military establishment to training programs grounded in radical slogans, replacing cohesive national doctrine. Concurrently, jihadist and Salafist ideologies have aggressively penetrated private schools and mosques, systematically targeting women and children through indoctrination initiatives that suppress freedom of thought and belief.

This policy culminates in a shift from societal influence to legislative authoritarianism within parliamentary bodies (People’s Assembly), which have witnessed official calls reinstating archaic practices—such as legitimizing corporal punishment against children in schools and restricting women’s access to education and public empowerment. These measures constitute a direct and severe violation of Syria’s binding legal obligations under ratified international treaties, most notably the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), threatening civil peace and institutionalizing a cross-generational demographic and ideological crisis.

 Undermining Transitional Justice and Accountability Mechanisms: The deliberate omission of transitional justice, accountability, and redress for past and present violations—coupled with limiting current legislative mechanisms to decrees that immunize de facto leaders—strips any political transition of its human rights substance. This obstruction prevents comprehensive national reconciliation, entrenches communal vengeance, and fuels individual and regional conflicts across diverse segments of society.

 Crimes of Demographic Change Against Minorities: Reports by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic confirmed the monitoring of systematic operations involving the confiscation of absentee properties, silent displacement, and the unlawful seizure of real estate and agricultural lands belonging to minority communities (Christians, Alawites, Ismailis, and Druze). Internationally, these violations are categorized as crimes against humanity aimed at destroying Syria’s historic pluralistic fabric.

XII. The “Soft Empowerment” Strategy and Deep State Foundations by Political Islam: Community Resistance and the Inevitability of a “Bread Riot”

 Tactics of “Technocratic Fronts” and Cumulative Institutional Infiltration: Analytical and field assessments reveal a strategic shift in the behavior of the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam movements in Syria. They have transitioned from crude military or party control toward a strategy of “soft empowerment” aimed at establishing an unannounced “deep state.” To circumvent international vetoes and popular rejection, this plan relies on pushing outwardly non-partisan figures, academics, and businesspersons (independent technocrats) as civil fronts to assume vital roles. This systematic penetration focuses on cumulatively controlling specific sovereign ministries (such as Justice, Education, Finance, and Religious Endowments) to reshape the legal and cultural identity of society while securing the laundering of partisan funding and foreign political capital.

 Popular and Civil Rejection of Covert Empowerment Projects: Contrary to expectations, the soft empowerment plan faces escalating grassroots and civil resistance inside Syria. Tribal forces in the eastern region and the Badia reject attempts to impose ideological guardianship or monopolize influence from urban centers. Simultaneously, civil movements and independent elites actively warn against the “Islamization of legislation,” demanding strict financial disclosure laws and prohibitions on religious or ethnic political parties. In parallel, most Arab and regional states express deep skepticism toward reproducing political Islam scenarios, making any contribution to reconstruction or investment contingent upon strict conditions that neutralize sovereign institutions and guarantee state secularism and transparency.

 The “Livelihood Trigger” and the Collapse of Temporary Legitimacy: While ruling factions remain preoccupied with influence-engineering and power struggles, the Syrian public suffers under an unprecedented economic collapse and suffocating deprivation. Field data confirms that failure to manage the economic and living crisis forms a ticking time bomb that will inevitably trigger a popular “bread riot” against all ruling entities. Exploiting living conditions to impose international terms or bypass Syrian aspirations will only shatter the legitimacy of hidden technocratic fronts—forcing the international community to urgently support a “State of Citizenship and Legislative Moderation” as the sole alternative to preserve all citizens’ rights and prevent the fragmentation of the Syrian state.

English Translation:

Dimensions of Temporary Engineering and the Risks of Unlawful Expropriation (Expropriation of Qudsaya Lands as a Case Study): This dual behavior reinforces the theory of a “temporary functional role” granted to the de facto authority to prevent a regional explosion until the next phase’s strategies become clear internally, regionally, and internationally—whether regarding the outcomes of the U.S. and Israeli elections, the escalation trajectories in the Iranian-American confrontation and regional proxy wars, or the comprehensive re-engineering of the Syrian file.

However, these geopolitical gambles remain threatened by imminent collapse due to structural looting and the diversion of domestic resources for the benefit of the ruling and controlling elite. The authority’s continued expropriation and confiscation of citizens’ lands in the Qudsaya area of Damascus without fair compensation—transferring them to private companies and commercial ventures—serves as living proof of a policy aimed at stripping private property rights and blackmailing the public. This has been vividly reflected in the expanding angry protests by local residents defending their lands and livelihoods.

The pretext of regional and international balances will no longer suffice to justify the seizure of citizens’ in-kind property rights and their deprivation of basic subsistence—a scenario that will completely reshuffle the cards and upend the illusion of regional stability.

XIII: Systematic Engineered Impoverishment and Developmental Erosion: The Ideological Exploitation of Hunger and Prolonged Transition

1. Strangulation of Self-Sufficiency and Local Production

Corruption and economic deterioration under the de facto authority transcend traditional cronyism, evolving into a systematic policy of impoverishment designed to strip Syrian society of its productive capacity. The report documents the deliberate disruption of local self-sufficiency initiatives—evidenced by the strangulation of local agriculture and the extortion of artisanal industries and small individual enterprises through arbitrary levies, looting, and monopolies favoring newly established patronage networks. This pattern functions to transform the Syrian citizen from a productive, resilient actor into an impoverished dependent, institutionalizing hunger to rob society of its economic autonomy.

2. Deconstructing the Root Causes of Economic Paralysis

The report demonstrates that the compounding economic hardship and living collapse experienced by the Syrian public—despite the lifting of certain sanctions and shifts in regional dynamics—are not the result of “societal diversity,” as the authorities claim, but rather a direct consequence of the nature of the de facto authority itself, with its jihadist background. The presence of foreign fighters, undisciplined elements, and the systematic tolerance of extremist ideology—coupled with a complete absence of financial transparency and governance—has paralyzed any potential for genuine international aid or sustainable developmental investments.

3. Weaponization of Survival and Ideological Recruitment

The policy of impoverishing and starving the Syrian population has been weaponized into a coercive mechanism forcing citizens to choose between basic survival and ideological alignment, leveraging poverty to recruit a non-national army founded on Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood loyalties. Attempting to entrench this authority and prolong the transitional phase under the guise of “managing the de facto reality” will only deepen internal power struggles among radical factions, fracture the societal fabric in the Coastal and Suwayda regions, and destroy all prospects for an inclusive constitutional life.

4. Critical Strategic Inquiry

Accordingly, the report poses a critical, strategic question to all regional and international actors that enabled or supported this framework:

“Can this experience truly be considered a successful model for stability? Or will betting on its prolongation inevitably yield catastrophic consequences for regional and international peace, sacrificing an entire generation of Syrians in the process?”

XIV. The Imperative of the “Civil State” as the Sole Path to Sustainable Peace and Depriving Pretexts

This comprehensive documentary report reaches a fundamental and decisive conclusion: comprehensive peace, peaceful coexistence, and genuine security stability in Syria and the region will never be achieved by creating temporary “functional roles” for conflicting powers. Such arrangements merely provide permanent pretexts for foreign military interventions, the erosion of national territory, and the establishment of regional flashpoints whose outcomes remain unpredictable and directly exacerbated by the escalating war on Iran.”And combating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations”

The only legal and political outlet to end demographic fragmentation, establish civil peace, and deprive external powers of pretexts requires—inevitably and without an exclusionary stance against any party:

 Unwavering Commitment to a Democratic Civil State: Grounded in equal citizenship, where the state acts as a patron and protector for all its citizens without sectarian or ideological discrimination.

 Protection of Syria’s Unique Cultural and Religious Diversity: Guaranteeing absolute peaceful coexistence and freedom of all beliefs and religions, safeguarding inherent human rights and preventing any systematic persecution or intellectual supremacy.

 Establishing National Political and Legislative Moderation: Respecting international conventions, international law, and human rights as a primary pillar to radically and sustainably dismantle hotbeds of extremist thought and terrorism—effectively pulling the rug from under systematic authoritarian projects and ongoing regional wars.

Special Documentary Annex: Major Ammunition Depot Explosion Series (September 2026)

Field monitoring records a dangerous and unprecedented escalation in the rate of ammunition depot explosions belonging to the transitional military establishment. Five major consecutive explosions were documented within just 21 days in September 2026 alone, adding to a cumulative total of 17 incidents since early 2025:

1. September 1, 2026 (Binnish Explosion – Idlib Countryside): A severe explosion of a cargo truck loaded with specialized ammunition in the middle of an inhabited area resulted in 5 fatalities, 8 injuries, and partial destruction of the surrounding residential area.

2. September 9, 2026 (Sarmada Depot Explosion – Idlib Countryside): A massive explosion inside a temporary arms and ammunition depot belonging to the Ministry of Defense along the international highway caused the deaths of 14 personnel and injured over 11 others.

3. September 12, 2026 (Al-Dmayr Explosion – Damascus Countryside): Successive explosions reverberated inside a military barracks and weapons depot storing ammunition and missile systems in a remote area on the outskirts of Al-Dmayr. Official narratives attributed the incident to the ignition of damaged ordnance remnants.

4. September 18, 2026 (Ayyash Depots – Deir ez-Zor Countryside): A major security disaster involving an explosion of unknown causes inside a primary weapons depot belonging to the Armament Administration in the desert near Ayyash, west of Deir ez-Zor. Officially, it resulted in 11 soldiers killed and 10 others injured, who were formally laid to rest from the National Hospital.

5. September 21, 2026 (Al-Eis Depot – Southern Aleppo Countryside): The most recently recorded event; violent explosions shook an ammunition depot belonging to the Ministry of Defense (formerly under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham control) and dawn. This resulted in 4 civilian injuries involving shrapnel and amputations, alongside massive destruction that severed the Damascus–Aleppo International Highway (M5) and forced the evacuation of hundreds of families due to hours of unguided projectile detonations.

Procedural Annex: Legal and Executive Recommendations Addressed to the United Nations and International Missions

Annex No. (1) Supplement to: Fact-Finding Report and Analysis of Policy Realities and Human Rights Dimensions in Syria (2026)

Based on the documentary evidence, geopolitical analysis, and human rights findings presented in the body of this report, the National Council for Human Rights (Syria) submits the following procedural package as an urgent legal roadmap to prevent the collapse of civil peace and guarantee a genuine transition toward sustainable stability:

I. To the United Nations Human Rights Council and the General Assembly

 Expanding the Mandate of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry: Requesting the Human Rights Council to extend and broaden the mandate of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic to include a specialized monitoring and documentation mechanism for silent structural violations—such as the confiscation of absentee properties and the systematic demographic engineering of minority populations—in the coastal region, the south, and various areas under the current de facto authority.

 Dispatching an Urgent Fact-Finding Mission to Southern and Coastal Syria: Urging the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to immediately deploy an on-site monitoring mission to the Suwayda governorate, southern Syria, and the Syrian coast to assess security and humanitarian conditions, while providing an international protection umbrella for civilians, the Druze community (Al-Muwahhidun), and all segments of society to prevent the recurrence of documented violations categorized as “war crimes and crimes against humanity.”

 Establishing a UN Oversight Mechanism for the Energy Sector: Pressuring the UN General Assembly to establish an international governance committee tasked with monitoring the flow of oil and gas revenues east of the Euphrates, ensuring the management of oil fields is stripped from the “front companies” affiliated with military factions, and redirecting revenues to support public services and humanitarian sectors under direct international supervision to end the war economy before a widespread crisis of famine erupts in Syria.

II. To the UN Security Council and Major Diplomatic Missions

 Upholding International References and Security Council Resolutions: Reaffirming the illegitimacy of any individual system of governance or temporary constitutional declarations drafted outside the framework of UN resolutions—foremost among them Resolution 2254 (2015) and updated Resolution 2799 (November 2025). Calling on international missions to pressure for UN-sponsored drafting of a permanent constitution that guarantees pluralism and full citizenship.

 Activating the Transitional Justice and Accountability Track: Demanding that transitional justice, accountability, and redress for past crimes and violations be made an essential and primary prerequisite for any international recognition of the transitional process, ensuring the establishment of independent courts and judicial mechanisms to deliver justice to victims and end impunity.

Prohibition of Exclusionary Legislation, Institutional Safeguards, and Guaranteeing Fair Competition:

Urging Member States to issue an absolute diplomatic rejection of all extraordinary and supra-constitutional decrees enacted by the de facto authority to immunize military and security leadership from judicial accountability or to exclude national components. Reaffirming the necessity of opening the political space to all spectrums of Syrian society without exception, while safeguarding state institutions through strict legal frameworks for financial disclosure and transparency that prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam movements from exploiting poverty and hunger, or utilizing foreign political finance to dominate parties and public institutions through deceptive technocratic or civil fronts.

 Revising Counterterrorism Strategies and Dismantling the “Functional Role”: Urging the U.S. Administration and the European Union to strategically disengage from the pragmatism of the so-called “counterterrorism laboratory” and reject the dual functional role paradigm, in alignment with the White House 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy which identifies the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots as the foundational source of radical groups. Emphasizing in international forums that turning a blind eye to the legacy of extremism and the infiltration of political Islam poses a regional threat that reproduces cross-border infiltration scenarios (akin to September 11 and October 7).

III. General Human Rights Recommendations to Preserve Syrian Identity and Deprive Pretexts

 Immediate Cessation of Intra-Factional Liquidations and Indiscriminate Arms Depletion: Obligating the transitional authority, through strict diplomatic sanctions, to halt forced and indiscriminate disarmament operations and the intentional explosion of internal ammunition depots that terrorize civilians and cause casualties and internal displacement crises (as documented in the September 2026 explosion series annex).

 Obligating Regional Parties to Cease Territorial Encroachments: Depriving external forces of legal and military pretexts by demanding that Israel end its occupation and recent incursions into the buffer zone and the Golan Heights, demanding that Turkey cease its cross-border ideological projects, and emphasizing that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria constitute a supreme security interest for the region. Re-establishing a regional-international agreement that guarantees the rights of the Syrian people and secures regional dialogue to achieve economic cooperation, lasting peace, and a civilized, peaceful coexistence among all religions.

 Establishing the Foundations of a “National Civil State”: Calling upon Syrian national blocs, civil movements, and civil society organizations both at home and in the diaspora to form a unified front to exert international pressure for peaceful coexistence, absolute freedom of belief, and complete legislative moderation as the sole legitimate alternative to codified authoritarianism and ideological quotas.

Official References and Adopted International Documents

 UN Security Council: Resolution 2254 (2015) & Resolution 2799 (November 2025) — Baseline reference resolutions governing political transition, the transitional governing body, and international legitimacy in Syria.

 Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (UNHRC): Reports and statements issued by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry for 2025 and 2026, specifically documentation concerning human rights violations in As-Suwayda, the South, and the Syrian coastal strip, as well as minority property confiscations and demographic engineering.

 U.S. Government & House Foreign Affairs Committee: U.S. National Strategy for Counterterrorism (2026) & Congressional Hearings — The updated 2026 White House National Strategy for Counterterrorism and Congressional Research reports regarding the role of the Muslim Brotherhood and organized Syrian lobbies in Washington.

 The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) & ICCT: Research tracking extremist structures, ideology, transnational intellectual mobilization campaigns, and monitoring the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadi groups across the Middle East (2026).

 Amnesty International & Human Rights Watch (HRW): Dedicated human rights documentations issued by Amnesty International and HRW for 2025 and 2026 regarding the situation of minorities, forced displacement, crimes against humanity, and real estate confiscation in the coastal and southern regions.

 National Council for Human Rights (Syria): Field documentations, internal reports, and direct source accounts from Damascus and the governorates regarding ammunition depot explosions, intra-factional liquidations, and energy sector violations (2025–2026).

List of References and International Legal Frameworks (Section VIII):

I. Local Official Data and Statements

1. Ministry of Energy and Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC): Official Press Conference and Statements Regarding Production Capacity (112,000 bpd) and Operational Deficit, Damascus/Hasakah (Mid-September 2026).
2. Statements by the Minister of Energy (Muhammad Al-Bashir): Official Announcement Concerning the Emergency Shutdown of the Baniyas Refinery and the Expiration of Oil Grants, September 2026.

II. International Governance and Human Rights Instruments 3. United Nations: United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), Article 9 (Public Procurement and Management of Public Finances). 4. United Nations: International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), Article 1 (Right of Peoples to Freely Dispose of Their Natural Wealth) and Article 11 (Right to an Adequate Standard of Living). 5. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GO): International Standard for Transparency, Governance, and Disclosure of Oil, Gas, and Mineral Contracts.

1. Al Jazeera Net: For field coverage, control movements over East Euphrates oil fields, and tracking economic decisions.

2. World Bank (Open Knowledge Repository): For structural data on poverty rates (93%), macro-inflation indicators, and infrastructure crisis assessment reports.

3. RePEc Economic Research Papers: For structural analyses of war economies, foreign exchange speculation mechanisms, and deconstructing price distortions.

4. Annahar Newspaper: For tracking logistical deals, regional memorandums of understanding, and the impact of fuel shortages on agricultural and industrial sectors.

5. Asharq News / Bloomberg: For tracking official fuel bulletin price movements and financial analysis regarding exchange companies and liquidity.

6. Reuters: For tracking maritime shipping tanker movements (such as Nissos Christiana) and following field and political developments.

7. Forbes: For analysis regarding international intermediary energy trading firms (such as B Serve and BB Energy) and offshore funds.

8. IMF eLibrary: For analyses on monetary policies, budget deficits, and the impact of the parallel exchange market on commodity prices.

9. European Commission – Economic and Financial Affairs (EC Economy & Finance): For transparent governance reports, performance evaluation of transitional governments, and constitutional adaptation of long-term contracts.

10. Field Observations: For monitoring local black-market prices, official Ministry of Energy bulletins, and complaints from citizens and artisan sectors.

27-09-2026

National Council for Human Rights – Syria

Adv. Qutaiba Qassim Al-Arab – President

#Syria_Policy_Report #De_Facto_Authority #Muslim_Brotherhood #Soft_Empowerment #Deep_State #Structural_Looting #Qudsaya_Expropriation #Child_Indoctrination #Syrian_Transition #US_Counterterrorism_2026 #Human_Rights_Syria #Civic_State

 #Oil_Plunder #Energy_Theft #Sovereign_Resources #Petroleum_Monopoly

https://www.scjrrcy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Fact-Finding-Report-and-Analysis-of-Political-Realities-and-Their-Human-Rights-Dimensions-in-Syria.pdf